The Comp Constellation

Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 264 qualified hitters (202+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.

strong match (0.55+) moderate (0.45 to 0.55) weaker (< 0.45) star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles

Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Horwitz, Spencer in signal, the comp in amber.

PIT · bats L · 314 PA

Ranked comps for Horwitz, Spencer

#PlayerSimilarityAgrees onDiffers onOpen
01 Bregman, Alex CHC · R · 442 PA 0.71 Max exit velocitySwing lengthGround-ball rate Oppo rate -1.7zBarrel rate -0.9zSprint speed +0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
02 Kelly, Carson CHC · R · 267 PA 0.66 Swing lengthMax exit velocityOppo rate Pull rate -1.5zGround-ball rate +1.2zWhiff rate +0.8z Player Projection Swing lab
03 Pasquantino, Vinnie KC · L · 311 PA 0.61 Max exit velocityWhiff ratexwOBA on contact Sweet-spot rate +1.6zOppo rate -1.3zIsolated power -1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
04 Hicks, Liam MIA · L · 359 PA 0.60 Max exit velocityIsolated powerChase rate Oppo rate -1.4zWalk rate -1.3zBarrel rate -1.2z Player Projection Swing lab
05 Rumfield, TJ COL · L · 408 PA 0.59 Isolated powerStrikeout rateIn-zone contact Sweet-spot rate +2.0zWalk rate -1.2zAvg exit velocity -1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
06 Lee, Brooks MIN · L · 397 PA 0.59 Ground-ball rateFly-ball ratePull rate Walk rate -2.0zChase rate +1.4zBarrel rate -1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
07 Smith, Dominic ATL · L · 248 PA 0.55 Ground-ball rateStrikeout ratexwOBA on contact Walk rate -2.0zSweet-spot rate +1.4zOppo rate -1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
08 Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R · 211 PA 0.53 Fly-ball rateGround-ball rateStrikeout rate Sweet-spot rate +1.8zWalk rate -1.7zSprint speed +1.4z Player Projection Swing lab
09 Tucker, Kyle LAD · L · 400 PA 0.52 Chase rateMax exit velocityWalk rate Sweet-spot rate +1.7zIn-zone contact -1.6zOppo rate -1.2z Player Projection Swing lab
10 Busch, Michael CHC · L · 442 PA 0.51 Swing lengthBarrel rateChase rate Sweet-spot rate +1.6zIn-zone contact -1.5zWhiff rate +1.4z Player Projection Swing lab
11 Collins, Isaac KC · L · 327 PA 0.51 Fly-ball rateAvg exit velocityPull rate Sprint speed +2.0zStrikeout rate +1.5zBat speed +1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
12 Perdomo, Geraldo AZ · L · 404 PA 0.51 In-zone contactStrikeout rateWalk rate Sprint speed +1.5zOppo rate -1.5zBarrel rate -1.4z Player Projection Swing lab

Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.