Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 28 |
| Height | 5' 11" |
| Weight | 180 lb |
| Debut | 2023-09-01 |
Player profile / Kansas City Royals
Nick Loftin
3B · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 11", 180 lb · Age 28
Club Kansas City Royals
Position 3B
Roster Current MLB team
Status Out / inactive
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 171 | 15 | 28 | 1 | 1 | .189 | .282 | .236 | .518 |
| 2025 | 188 | 17 | 35 | 4 | 1 | .208 | .278 | .357 | .635 |
| 2026 | 426 | 42 | 89 | 8 | 4 | .240 | .322 | .388 | .710 |
| 4 Seasons | 853 | 84 | 172 | 13 | 8 | .230 | .308 | .355 | .663 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
22
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.307 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.293 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.298 |
| Observed weight | 67% |
xwOBA
0.273
0.284
0.298
0.311
0.323
wOBA
0.307
0.320
0.335
0.350
0.364
ISO
0.122
0.136
0.152
0.169
0.183
K%
14.2%
15.4%
16.8%
18.2%
19.4%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.9%
22
Exit velocity85.6
26
Hard-hit%29.6%
15
xBA0.284
16
xSLG0.417
18
xwOBA0.293
37
BB%9.4%
62
+18 vs proj
Bat speed65.8
11
K%17.3%
82
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · 3B
25
Arm Strength93.7 · 3B
91
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
47
Range Runs-2.8 · 3B
27
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · 3B
75
Sprint Speed28.0 · 3B
65
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.6% · rebadged research
87
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.9% · rebadged research
32
Correct Decisions66.6% · rebadged research
54
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
77
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.305 · borderline
21
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.261 · insufficient sample
91
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275 · validated thin sample
66
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample
99
Resists FastballwOBA 0.356 · validated
21
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355 · validated
53
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
179 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.008 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.051 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Loftin’s wOBA sits at 0.335, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.293 — a gap of 0.043, -1.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 446 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Young, Jacob WSH · R | 0.81 | Ground-ball rateStrikeout rate | Player · Projection |
| Keaschall, Luke MIN · R | 0.76 | Barrel rateFly-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Stott, Bryson PHI · L | 0.75 | Isolated powerPull rate | Player · Projection |
| Rocchio, Brayan CLE · L | 0.75 | Isolated powerSweet-spot rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 3 | 2026-09-22 | Impact contact was the main driver |
| Fielding | 32 | 2026-09-18 | 6 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +2.871 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.285 xwOBA | 7 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 @ LAA0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | 2 K |
| 2026-05-20 vs BOS0 HR | 0 RBI / 6 Ch | 1 E | 0-4 | 2 K |
| 2026-04-20 vs BAL0 HR | 3 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 2-2 | 2B, BB, 3 RBI |
| 2026-04-05 vs MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-2 | K |
| 2026-04-04 vs MIL0 HR | 0 RBI / 6 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | BB, R |