Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.255 vs 0.223 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026
Kelly, Carson
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team CHC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
50
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.293 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.328 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.313 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
xwOBA
0.288
0.299
0.313
0.326
0.337
wOBA
0.354
0.372
0.392
0.413
0.431
ISO
0.117
0.131
0.147
0.162
0.177
K%
15.6%
16.7%
18.1%
19.4%
20.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.2%
52
+18 vs proj
Exit velocity88.5
55
Hard-hit%38.8%
49
xBA0.305
31
xSLG0.491
43
xwOBA0.328
71
+37 vs proj
BB%11.2%
79
+27 vs proj
Bat speed69.7
50
K%16.5%
82
+24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.7 · C
81
Catcher Throwing-2.4 · C
5
Framing Runs-0.3 · C
45
Pop Time1.9 · C
50
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · C
29
Sprint Speed25.7 · C
13
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.4% · rebadged research
65
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.2% · rebadged research
83
Correct Decisions69.8% · rebadged research
83
Mithrandir Stuff+64
3
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · borderline
41
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample
65
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303 · validated thin sample
10
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.353 · insufficient sample
13
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348 · validated
33
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
33
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
81
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
137 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.037 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.101 |
| Sample | 267 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 462 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.291 | 0.273 to 0.337 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.121 | 0.096 to 0.209 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 3.0% to 6.8% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.9% | 33.1% to 44.9% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 21.2% | 16.4% to 25.0% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 6.8% to 12.0% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.277 | 0.237 to 0.324 | +/- 0.044 |
vs LHP
697 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 8.5% |
| Barrel | 4.2% |
vs RHP
1651 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.223 |
| K% | 15.8% |
| BB% | 6.9% |
| Barrel | 3.7% |