Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.255 vs 0.223 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026
Kelly, Carson
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team CHC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
40
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.293 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.311 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.305 |
| Observed weight | 67% |
xwOBA
0.283
0.293
0.305
0.316
0.327
wOBA
0.323
0.337
0.352
0.367
0.381
ISO
0.112
0.123
0.136
0.148
0.159
K%
15.5%
16.5%
17.5%
18.6%
19.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.1%
37
Exit velocity86.8
38
Hard-hit%36.9%
43
xBA0.299
28
xSLG0.456
33
xwOBA0.311
58
+22 vs proj
BB%9.5%
64
Bat speed69.2
44
K%16.3%
85
+25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.6 · C
91
Catcher Throwing-2.4 · C
7
Framing Runs1.1 · C
65
Pop Time2.0 · C
36
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.9 · C
15
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.4% · rebadged research
71
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.5% · rebadged research
68
Correct Decisions70.1% · rebadged research
87
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
78
Fastball Stuff+74
0
Mithrandir Stuff+69
3
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.302 · borderline
25
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
87
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.312 · validated thin sample
6
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · insufficient sample
14
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340 · validated
44
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
31
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
217 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.019 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.060 |
| Sample | 441 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 462 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.291 | 0.273 to 0.337 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.121 | 0.096 to 0.209 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 3.0% to 6.8% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.9% | 33.1% to 44.9% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 21.2% | 16.4% to 25.0% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 6.8% to 12.0% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.277 | 0.237 to 0.324 | +/- 0.044 |
vs LHP
697 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 8.5% |
| Barrel | 4.2% |
vs RHP
1651 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.223 |
| K% | 15.8% |
| BB% | 6.9% |
| Barrel | 3.7% |