Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projected to do more damage vs lefties (0.255 vs 0.223 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026
Kelly, Carson
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team CHC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.293 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.319 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.305 |
| Observed weight | 44% |
xwOBA
0.278
0.291
0.305
0.319
0.332
wOBA
0.357
0.379
0.404
0.429
0.452
ISO
0.099
0.115
0.133
0.151
0.167
K%
15.8%
17.2%
18.7%
20.2%
21.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.7%
62
+17 vs proj
Barrel%5.7%
59
+24 vs proj
Bat speed69.7
50
Exit velocity89.3
59
Hard-hit%41.1%
55
+17 vs proj
K%17.0%
79
+24 vs proj
xBA0.310
36
xSLG0.474
38
xwOBA0.319
58
+25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.3 · C
59
Catcher Throwing-1.3 · C
7
Framing Runs-2.5 · C
14
Pop Time1.9 · C
57
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · C
37
Sprint Speed25.6 · C
13
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.1% · rebadged research
68
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.6% · rebadged research
86
Correct Decisions70.3% · rebadged research
86
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · borderline
48
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
65
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290 · validated thin sample
18
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.362 · insufficient sample
7
Resists FastballwOBA 0.347 · validated
36
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
46
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
83
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
120 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.027 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.113 |
| Sample | 176 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 462 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.291 | 0.273 to 0.337 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.121 | 0.096 to 0.209 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 4.0% | 3.0% to 6.8% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.9% | 33.1% to 44.9% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 21.2% | 16.4% to 25.0% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 6.8% to 12.0% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.277 | 0.237 to 0.324 | +/- 0.044 |
vs LHP
697 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.255 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 8.5% |
| Barrel | 4.2% |
vs RHP
1651 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.223 |
| K% | 15.8% |
| BB% | 6.9% |
| Barrel | 3.7% |