Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026
Bregman, Alex
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team CHC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.323 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.325 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.324 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
xwOBA
0.299
0.311
0.324
0.337
0.349
wOBA
0.334
0.352
0.371
0.391
0.408
ISO
0.126
0.141
0.158
0.174
0.189
K%
13.4%
14.5%
15.7%
16.9%
18.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.3%
56
Barrel%5.0%
49
Bat speed67.9
26
Exit velocity89.1
56
Hard-hit%43.8%
66
K%17.1%
79
xBA0.324
50
xSLG0.491
43
xwOBA0.325
64
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength81.4 · 3B
18
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
45
Range Runs0.3 · 3B
46
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.0 · 3B
42
Sprint Speed25.9 · 3B
18
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.7% · rebadged research
93
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.0% · rebadged research
24
Correct Decisions69.1% · rebadged research
78
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · borderline
75
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.259 · insufficient sample
93
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.296 · validated thin sample
10
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.364 · insufficient sample
5
Resists FastballwOBA 0.348 · validated
35
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345 · validated
79
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
191 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.002 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.044 |
| Sample | 281 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 533 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 20 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.327 | 0.299 to 0.370 | +/- 0.035 |
| ISO | 0.164 | 0.121 to 0.246 | +/- 0.062 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 3.1% to 6.7% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.8% | 36.6% to 49.0% | +/- 6.2% |
| K% | 13.9% | 11.8% to 19.3% | +/- 3.8% |
| BB% | 9.0% | 7.4% to 12.1% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.269 | 0.248 to 0.317 | +/- 0.034 |
vs LHP
1786 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.299 |
| K% | 10.7% |
| BB% | 9.6% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |
vs RHP
4141 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.290 |
| K% | 12.3% |
| BB% | 8.2% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |