Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / KC · 2026
Loftin, Nick
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team KC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
28
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.307 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.317 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.311 |
| Observed weight | 38% |
xwOBA
0.274
0.292
0.311
0.331
0.348
wOBA
0.320
0.345
0.373
0.402
0.427
ISO
0.099
0.124
0.152
0.180
0.205
K%
10.7%
12.7%
14.9%
17.2%
19.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.7%
29
Exit velocity86.5
28
Hard-hit%32.0%
20
xBA0.278
14
xSLG0.406
16
xwOBA0.317
59
+32 vs proj
BB%11.1%
74
+35 vs proj
Bat speed66.1
12
K%13.3%
90
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · 2B
15
Arm Strength88.2 · 2B
69
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
42
Range Runs-6.1 · 2B
4
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · 2B
74
Sprint Speed28.2 · 2B
75
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.0% · rebadged research
89
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7% · rebadged research
44
Correct Decisions67.2% · rebadged research
60
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.319 · borderline
7
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · insufficient sample
81
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284 · validated thin sample
32
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.313 · insufficient sample
92
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336 · validated
58
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369 · validated
25
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
83
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
78 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.033 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.089 |
| Sample | 135 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 321 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.285 | 0.253 to 0.354 | +/- 0.051 |
| ISO | 0.134 | 0.072 to 0.236 | +/- 0.082 |
| Barrel% | 3.6% | 1.5% to 6.4% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 32.9% | 28.3% to 43.6% | +/- 7.7% |
| K% | 14.3% | 12.0% to 24.9% | +/- 6.4% |
| BB% | 8.0% | 5.3% to 11.5% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.276 | 0.207 to 0.322 | +/- 0.057 |
vs LHP
159 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.193 |
| K% | 9.6% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 2.8% |
vs RHP
332 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.180 |
| K% | 9.8% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 2.4% |