Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Perdomo, Geraldo
On-base driven regular with stable floor
Team AZ
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.327 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.323 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.325 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.299
0.311
0.325
0.338
0.350
wOBA
0.303
0.321
0.342
0.362
0.380
ISO
0.110
0.125
0.142
0.158
0.173
K%
10.6%
11.8%
13.1%
14.3%
15.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%14.6%
94
Barrel%2.4%
18
Bat speed62.1
2
Exit velocity85.1
16
Hard-hit%32.0%
20
K%12.6%
93
xBA0.295
26
xSLG0.392
14
xwOBA0.323
61
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · SS
47
Arm Strength89.2 · SS
77
Outs Above Avg4.0 · SS
93
Range Runs2.5 · SS
81
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · SS
85
SB Success Rate88.9% · SS
79
Sprint Speed26.8 · SS
36
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.3% · rebadged research
83
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.0% · rebadged research
17
Correct Decisions66.2% · rebadged research
49
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
63
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
45
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
50
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260 · validated thin sample
88
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.303 · insufficient sample
97
Resists FastballwOBA 0.381 · validated
5
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336 · validated
89
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
171 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.012 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.007 |
| Sample | 247 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 611 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.335 | 0.303 to 0.369 | +/- 0.033 |
| ISO | 0.155 | 0.112 to 0.231 | +/- 0.059 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 1.8% to 5.2% | +/- 1.7% |
| Hard-Hit% | 29.3% | 25.7% to 36.7% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 13.4% | 10.9% to 19.2% | +/- 4.2% |
| BB% | 12.2% | 9.7% to 15.3% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.303 | 0.280 to 0.349 | +/- 0.034 |
vs LHP
615 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.286 |
| K% | 9.5% |
| BB% | 9.2% |
| Barrel | 2.4% |
vs RHP
1686 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.277 |
| K% | 12.6% |
| BB% | 11.5% |
| Barrel | 2.9% |