Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
None
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team COL
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
29
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.264 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.323 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.302 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.267
0.284
0.302
0.320
0.337
wOBA
0.365
0.380
0.396
0.413
0.427
ISO
0.108
0.126
0.145
0.164
0.181
K%
12.8%
15.1%
17.7%
20.2%
22.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.9%
33
Exit velocity84.0
11
Hard-hit%29.0%
13
-26 vs proj
xBA0.297
24
xSLG0.451
28
xwOBA0.323
66
BB%9.8%
65
+15 vs proj
Bat speed66.7
17
K%13.2%
93
+71 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · 1B
23
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 1B
85
Range Runs2.0 · 1B
70
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.9 · 1B
2
Sprint Speed25.0 · 1B
5
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.6% · rebadged research
36
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.0% · rebadged research
91
Correct Decisions66.6% · rebadged research
55
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
67
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · borderline
30
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · insufficient sample
68
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269 · validated thin sample
83
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · insufficient sample
15
Resists FastballwOBA 0.383 · validated
5
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated
60
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
208 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.003 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.077 |
| Sample | 408 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 207 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.320 | 0.108 to 0.275 | +/- 0.083 |
| ISO | 0.115 | 0.016 to 0.204 | +/- 0.094 |
| Barrel% | 4.2% | 0.2% to 5.1% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.7% | 14.2% to 41.5% | +/- 13.6% |
| K% | 28.1% | 10.5% to 37.1% | +/- 13.3% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 1.9% to 11.3% | +/- 4.7% |
| BABIP | 0.330 | 0.181 to 0.397 | +/- 0.108 |
vs LHP
6 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 2.9% |
| BB% | 1.3% |
| Barrel | 0.2% |
vs RHP
16 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 2.6% |
| BB% | 1.6% |
| Barrel | 0.2% |