Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
None
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team COL
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.264 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.344 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.307 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.263
0.284
0.307
0.330
0.351
wOBA
0.345
0.364
0.384
0.405
0.424
ISO
0.077
0.099
0.124
0.148
0.170
K%
13.1%
16.2%
19.5%
22.9%
25.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.4%
42
Barrel%5.6%
57
+19 vs proj
Bat speed67.0
21
Exit velocity85.7
20
Hard-hit%35.4%
30
K%13.9%
89
+69 vs proj
xBA0.325
53
xSLG0.523
54
xwOBA0.344
77
+18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
81
Range Runs1.8 · 1B
71
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.3 · 1B
0
Sprint Speed24.8 · 1B
4
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.3% · rebadged research
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.0% · rebadged research
92
Correct Decisions66.6% · rebadged research
53
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
64
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.308 · borderline
13
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · insufficient sample
44
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270 · validated thin sample
69
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.343 · insufficient sample
22
Resists FastballwOBA 0.381 · validated
5
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352 · validated
63
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
182 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.024 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.065 |
| Sample | 251 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 207 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.320 | 0.108 to 0.275 | +/- 0.083 |
| ISO | 0.115 | 0.016 to 0.204 | +/- 0.094 |
| Barrel% | 4.2% | 0.2% to 5.1% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.7% | 14.2% to 41.5% | +/- 13.6% |
| K% | 28.1% | 10.5% to 37.1% | +/- 13.3% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 1.9% to 11.3% | +/- 4.7% |
| BABIP | 0.330 | 0.181 to 0.397 | +/- 0.108 |
vs LHP
6 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 2.9% |
| BB% | 1.3% |
| Barrel | 0.2% |
vs RHP
16 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 2.6% |
| BB% | 1.6% |
| Barrel | 0.2% |