Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / LAA · 2026
Schanuel, Nolan
On-base driven regular with stable floor
Team LAA
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
38
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.335 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.326 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.330 |
| Observed weight | 61% |
xwOBA
0.304
0.316
0.330
0.343
0.356
wOBA
0.320
0.335
0.353
0.371
0.386
ISO
0.111
0.122
0.135
0.148
0.160
K%
12.8%
13.8%
15.0%
16.1%
17.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.5%
8
-19 vs proj
Exit velocity87.1
37
Hard-hit%32.3%
22
xBA0.337
65
xSLG0.459
31
xwOBA0.326
68
BB%9.8%
65
Bat speed65.7
9
K%15.1%
86
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 1B
85
Range Runs2.2 · 1B
74
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · 1B
38
Sprint Speed25.9 · 1B
16
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.2% · rebadged research
54
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.6% · rebadged research
20
Correct Decisions65.4% · rebadged research
41
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
37
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · borderline
27
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · insufficient sample
33
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.259 · validated thin sample
93
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.316 · insufficient sample
87
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341 · validated
43
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
73
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
191 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.016 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.011 |
| Sample | 337 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 559 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.342 | 0.309 to 0.394 | +/- 0.043 |
| ISO | 0.143 | 0.112 to 0.215 | +/- 0.051 |
| Barrel% | 3.6% | 2.1% to 6.2% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 30.8% | 27.2% to 38.0% | +/- 5.4% |
| K% | 13.5% | 12.0% to 19.9% | +/- 3.9% |
| BB% | 10.7% | 8.6% to 14.4% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.283 | 0.260 to 0.329 | +/- 0.035 |
vs LHP
309 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.261 |
| K% | 13.1% |
| BB% | 9.4% |
| Barrel | 2.2% |
vs RHP
1038 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.285 |
| K% | 11.7% |
| BB% | 10.0% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |