Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Caratini, Victor
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team MIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.319 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.329 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.324 |
| Observed weight | 45% |
xwOBA
0.297
0.309
0.324
0.338
0.350
wOBA
0.254
0.274
0.298
0.321
0.341
ISO
0.110
0.124
0.140
0.155
0.169
K%
16.9%
18.4%
20.0%
21.7%
23.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.0%
52
+22 vs proj
Barrel%3.9%
33
Bat speed69.5
47
Exit velocity88.7
52
Hard-hit%37.1%
39
K%21.9%
50
xBA0.325
53
xSLG0.488
42
xwOBA0.329
68
+17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.4 · C
71
Catcher Throwing-1.6 · C
2
Framing Runs2.8 · C
90
Outs Above Avg0.0 · C
80
Pop Time2.0 · C
3
Range Runs0.1 · C
75
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.2 · C
2
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.2% · rebadged research
68
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.4% · rebadged research
21
Correct Decisions65.6% · rebadged research
44
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · borderline
28
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
68
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257 · validated thin sample
92
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.361 · insufficient sample
7
Resists FastballwOBA 0.315 · validated
90
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.302 · validated
100
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
50
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
107 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.019 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.013 |
| Sample | 178 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 428 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.310 | 0.288 to 0.352 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.148 | 0.117 to 0.212 | +/- 0.048 |
| Barrel% | 4.3% | 2.6% to 6.6% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.9% | 35.1% to 47.1% | +/- 6.0% |
| K% | 19.8% | 15.1% to 24.4% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 7.0% | 5.4% to 9.8% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.273 | 0.236 to 0.321 | +/- 0.042 |
vs LHP
563 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.254 |
| K% | 15.9% |
| BB% | 5.1% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |
vs RHP
1785 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.241 |
| K% | 13.6% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 3.3% |