Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-33 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Caratini, Victor
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team MIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 33
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
60
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.319 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.338 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.329 |
| Observed weight | 56% |
xwOBA
0.305
0.316
0.329
0.342
0.354
wOBA
0.305
0.322
0.341
0.361
0.378
ISO
0.135
0.147
0.161
0.174
0.186
K%
16.7%
17.9%
19.3%
20.7%
22.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.7%
60
+21 vs proj
Exit velocity89.5
66
Hard-hit%39.4%
51
xBA0.319
47
xSLG0.530
56
xwOBA0.338
76
+23 vs proj
BB%9.6%
63
+33 vs proj
Bat speed69.2
43
K%20.0%
65
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.3 · C
64
Catcher Throwing-3.8 · C
1
Framing Runs3.1 · C
86
Outs Above Avg0.0 · C
65
Pop Time2.0 · C
3
Range Runs0.1 · C
75
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.4 · C
2
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.7% · rebadged research
71
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.8% · rebadged research
14
Correct Decisions64.9% · rebadged research
36
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.307 · borderline
16
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
41
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.263 · validated thin sample
90
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.360 · insufficient sample
9
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323 · validated
79
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.309 · validated
99
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
47
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
136 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.027 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.031 |
| Sample | 280 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 428 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.310 | 0.288 to 0.352 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.148 | 0.117 to 0.212 | +/- 0.047 |
| Barrel% | 4.3% | 2.6% to 6.6% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.9% | 35.1% to 47.1% | +/- 6.0% |
| K% | 19.8% | 15.1% to 24.4% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 7.0% | 5.4% to 9.8% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.273 | 0.236 to 0.321 | +/- 0.042 |
vs LHP
563 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.254 |
| K% | 15.9% |
| BB% | 5.1% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |
vs RHP
1785 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.241 |
| K% | 13.6% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 3.3% |