Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / SEA · 2026

Crawford, J.p.

On-base driven regular with stable floor

Primary
0.333 xwOBA
Range
0.279 to 0.368
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
49
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
55
Defense4 metrics
32
Speed1 metrics
14
Plate skills10 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.326
xwOBA current pace0.330
xwOBA rolling p500.328
Observed weight60%
xwOBA
0.302 0.314 0.328 0.343 0.355
wOBA
0.283 0.298 0.315 0.332 0.348
ISO
0.114 0.128 0.144 0.160 0.175
K%
17.7% 18.9% 20.3% 21.6% 22.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
42
Exit velocity87.8
46
Hard-hit%36.3%
36
xBA0.322
51
xSLG0.496
45
xwOBA0.330
72
BB%13.4%
91
Bat speed69.4
47
K%20.6%
61
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
84
Arm Strength81.9 · SS
13
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · SS
28
Range Runs-7.1 · SS
3
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.8 · SS
14
SB Success Rate0.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.6% · rebadged research
96
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.5% · rebadged research
15
Correct Decisions68.4% · rebadged research
72
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.263 · borderline
91
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
38
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292 · validated thin sample
20
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
100
Resists FastballwOBA 0.343 · validated
39
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375 · validated
16
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Crawford, J.p. · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.330 2026-07-05: 0.3302026-07-06: 0.3292026-07-07: 0.3302026-07-08: 0.3302026-07-09: 0.3282026-07-10: 0.3292026-07-11: 0.3272026-07-12: 0.3312026-07-13: 0.3292026-07-14: 0.3302026-07-15: 0.3302026-07-16: 0.330 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

154 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Crawford, J.p. · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 12% of plotted batted ballsPull 12%Center field third: 76% of plotted batted ballsCenter 76%Right field third: 12% of plotted batted ballsOppo 12% LF 331 CF 401 RF 326 2026-04-03 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 102.7 / LA 22.02026-04-04 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 105.2 / LA 20.02026-04-04 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 35.02026-04-05 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 63.5 / LA -10.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 95.8 / LA 21.02026-04-06 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 29.02026-04-07 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 68.3 / LA -8.02026-04-07 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 76.3 / LA 18.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 86.9 / LA 23.02026-04-08 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 97.2 / LA 36.02026-04-10 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 6.02026-04-10 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.1 / LA -5.02026-04-11 · field out · FC · popup · EV 75.6 / LA 82.02026-04-11 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 81.5 / LA 15.02026-04-11 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 92.1 / LA 10.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 93.9 / LA 20.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 38.02026-04-13 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 104.4 / LA 5.02026-04-13 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 68.5 / LA -8.02026-04-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.9 / LA -3.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · popup · EV 86.8 / LA 72.02026-04-14 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA -2.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 67.7 / LA -7.02026-04-16 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 97.3 / LA 27.02026-04-16 · field out · SL · ground_ball2026-04-17 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.5 / LA -2.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 91.3 / LA 24.02026-04-17 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 58.8 / LA -41.02026-04-18 · double · FS · ground_ball · EV 107.2 / LA 6.02026-04-18 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 103.2 / LA 22.02026-04-18 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 84.2 / LA 45.02026-04-18 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.7 / LA 10.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 28.02026-04-19 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 107.8 / LA 22.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.5 / LA -9.02026-04-20 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 70.9 / LA -8.02026-04-20 · field out · SL · popup · EV 89.3 / LA 63.02026-04-20 · field out · FC · popup · EV 66.5 / LA 64.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.4 / LA -2.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.2 / LA 32.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.0 / LA 21.02026-04-22 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 3.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.3 / LA 49.02026-04-22 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.1 / LA -7.02026-04-22 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 95.9 / LA 14.02026-04-22 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 94.8 / LA -1.02026-04-24 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 53.2 / LA -20.02026-04-25 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA -7.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.0 / LA -3.02026-04-25 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 100.8 / LA 20.02026-04-25 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 45.6 / LA -44.02026-04-26 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 87.5 / LA 29.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.5 / LA 7.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 67.0 / LA -8.02026-04-27 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 85.6 / LA -13.02026-04-27 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 97.3 / LA 17.02026-04-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.6 / LA -5.02026-04-28 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 91.4 / LA 18.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.6 / LA -14.02026-04-28 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 24.02026-04-28 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 102.6 / LA 12.02026-04-29 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 76.3 / LA 12.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 83.6 / LA 9.02026-04-29 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 30.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 92.6 / LA 16.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · popup · EV 54.2 / LA 84.02026-05-01 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 87.1 / LA 12.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.5 / LA -8.02026-05-02 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 84.7 / LA -11.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA 0.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA -15.02026-05-03 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA -4.02026-05-03 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 7.02026-05-03 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 50.4 / LA -14.02026-05-03 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 68.9 / LA -33.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.1 / LA 37.02026-05-04 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 39.02026-05-04 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 96.5 / LA 1.02026-05-05 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 86.9 / LA -10.02026-05-05 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 28.02026-05-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 57.9 / LA -37.02026-05-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 60.7 / LA -14.02026-05-08 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 81.4 / LA 16.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 83.1 / LA -24.02026-05-09 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 75.3 / LA 30.02026-05-09 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 103.5 / LA 11.02026-05-09 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 95.9 / LA -7.02026-05-10 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.2 / LA 10.02026-05-10 · field out · FC · popup · EV 65.1 / LA 83.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 69.3 / LA 11.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.3 / LA -11.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 85.3 / LA -44.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.0 / LA -22.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 83.3 / LA 20.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 101.9 / LA 16.02026-05-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 96.6 / LA 10.02026-05-12 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 88.9 / LA 33.02026-05-13 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.3 / LA 38.02026-05-13 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 85.4 / LA 28.02026-05-13 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.9 / LA -20.02026-05-13 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 66.0 / LA -50.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.8 / LA -27.02026-05-14 · field out · SI · popup · EV 77.4 / LA 64.02026-05-14 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.5 / LA -3.02026-05-14 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 71.2 / LA 7.02026-05-14 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 98.3 / LA 22.02026-05-15 · field out · SI · popup · EV 64.6 / LA 68.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.1 / LA 28.02026-05-15 · field out · FC · popup · EV 72.3 / LA 61.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.8 / LA 16.02026-05-16 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 98.1 / LA 27.02026-05-16 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 74.8 / LA 22.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA -1.02026-05-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA -15.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · popup · EV 81.4 / LA 70.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · popup · EV 76.5 / LA 78.02026-05-22 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.8 / LA -18.02026-05-22 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 94.0 / LA 31.02026-05-22 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 102.0 / LA -9.02026-05-23 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 91.7 / LA 20.02026-05-23 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 85.1 / LA 8.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 80.3 / LA -27.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 81.1 / LA -16.02026-05-24 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 106.1 / LA 0.02026-05-24 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 79.6 / LA -27.02026-05-24 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 3.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.7 / LA 0.02026-05-25 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 88.8 / LA 46.02026-05-25 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 101.0 / LA 26.02026-05-26 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 91.9 / LA 28.02026-05-26 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 63.6 / LA 31.02026-05-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 73.5 / LA 8.02026-05-27 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA -3.02026-05-27 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 83.4 / LA 12.02026-05-27 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 82.9 / LA 5.02026-05-31 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 5.02026-06-01 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 88.2 / LA -29.02026-06-01 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 96.3 / LA 13.02026-06-05 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 93.4 / LA 15.02026-06-18 · field out · KC · fly_ball · EV 88.7 / LA 41.02026-06-18 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 97.6 / LA 34.02026-06-18 · field out · KC · popup · EV 74.5 / LA 77.02026-06-18 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA -11.02026-06-20 · field out · SI · popup · EV 56.7 / LA 41.02026-06-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.2 / LA 31.02026-06-20 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 84.6 / LA 52.02026-06-24 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 83.4 / LA 32.02026-06-24 · field out · CU · popup · EV 72.3 / LA 75.02026-06-24 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 84.6 / LA 12.02026-06-26 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 82.2 / LA -4.02026-06-26 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 89.8 / LA -9.02026-06-26 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 46.1 / LA -63.02026-06-30 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 90.5 / LA 54.02026-06-30 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 106.6 / LA 6.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Crawford, J.p. · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 50%50%Chase: 20%20%Whiff: 15%15%Zone contact: 89%89%Contact: 85%85%Hard hit: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
3
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.003
wOBA Δ-0.018
Sample335 PA

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances610----
Home Runs14----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3330.279 to 0.368+/- 0.045
ISO0.1290.091 to 0.224+/- 0.067
Barrel%3.9%2.2% to 6.4%+/- 2.1%
Hard-Hit%36.7%32.3% to 44.3%+/- 6.0%
K%18.3%15.0% to 24.9%+/- 5.0%
BB%11.5%9.3% to 14.5%+/- 2.6%
BABIP0.2890.260 to 0.336+/- 0.038
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1288 career PA

xwOBA0.269
K%17.2%
BB%10.0%
Barrel3.1%
vs RHP

2798 career PA

xwOBA0.283
K%17.1%
BB%10.9%
Barrel3.3%