The Comp Constellation
Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 264 qualified hitters (202+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.
strong match (0.55+)
moderate (0.45 to 0.55)
weaker (< 0.45)
star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles
Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Kelly, Carson in signal, the comp in amber.
CHC · bats R · 267 PA
Ranked comps for Kelly, Carson
| # | Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Differs on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Cortes, Carlos ATH · L · 241 PA | 0.82 | Isolated powerWhiff rateGround-ball rate | Sweet-spot rate +1.2zIn-zone contact -1.0zMax exit velocity +0.7z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 02 | Bohm, Alec PHI · R · 397 PA | 0.80 | In-zone contactSweet-spot rateBat speed | Walk rate -1.5zSwing length +0.6zWhiff rate -0.6z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 03 | Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R · 211 PA | 0.74 | Bat speedIsolated powerIn-zone contact | Ground-ball rate -1.2zSweet-spot rate +1.1zWalk rate -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 04 | Garcia, Maikel KC · R · 304 PA | 0.72 | xwOBA on contactOppo rateStrikeout rate | Sprint speed +1.5zWhiff rate -0.9zWalk rate -0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 05 | Contreras, William MIL · R · 397 PA | 0.72 | In-zone contactSprint speedIsolated power | Max exit velocity +1.5zWalk rate -1.0zAvg exit velocity +0.7z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 06 | Crawford, J.P. SEA · L · 335 PA | 0.71 | Isolated powerSprint speedBat speed | Sweet-spot rate +1.6zChase rate -1.0zPull rate +0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 07 | Caratini, Victor MIN · L · 280 PA | 0.71 | Hard-hit rateIsolated powerChase rate | Sweet-spot rate +1.9zPull rate +1.0zSprint speed -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 08 | Smith, Dominic ATL · L · 248 PA | 0.67 | In-zone contactSwing lengthxwOBA on contact | Walk rate -1.3zGround-ball rate -1.2zFly-ball rate +1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 09 | Bregman, Alex CHC · R · 442 PA | 0.66 | Isolated powerMax exit velocitySweet-spot rate | Pull rate +1.7zOppo rate -1.4zGround-ball rate -1.4z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 10 | Herrera, Iván STL · R · 431 PA | 0.66 | Strikeout ratexwOBA on contactWhiff rate | Swing length +2.0zMax exit velocity +1.4zPull rate +0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 11 | Horwitz, Spencer PIT · L · 314 PA | 0.66 | Swing lengthMax exit velocityOppo rate | Pull rate +1.5zGround-ball rate -1.2zWhiff rate -0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 12 | Moreno, Gabriel AZ · R · 288 PA | 0.65 | Fly-ball rateBat speedBarrel rate | Oppo rate +2.0zSweet-spot rate +1.3zPull rate +0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.