Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / AZ · 2026
Moreno, Gabriel
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team AZ
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
70
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.331 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.365 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.350 |
| Observed weight | 57% |
xwOBA
0.326
0.337
0.350
0.363
0.374
wOBA
0.364
0.382
0.401
0.421
0.438
ISO
0.135
0.150
0.166
0.182
0.196
K%
14.1%
15.5%
17.0%
18.5%
19.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.6%
57
Exit velocity89.5
67
Hard-hit%43.3%
67
xBA0.350
78
xSLG0.536
59
xwOBA0.365
91
+18 vs proj
BB%12.2%
86
+26 vs proj
Bat speed70.0
54
K%15.6%
85
+16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.1 · C
92
Catcher Throwing1.3 · C
80
Framing Runs2.7 · C
80
Pop Time1.9 · C
78
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.2 · C
37
Sprint Speed26.1 · C
20
SB Success Rate75.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.9% · rebadged research
46
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.2% · rebadged research
23
Correct Decisions61.4% · rebadged research
13
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
49
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.266 · insufficient sample
87
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292 · validated thin sample
21
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · insufficient sample
78
Resists FastballwOBA 0.345 · validated
38
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.387 · validated
8
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
32
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
116 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.032 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.069 |
| Sample | 288 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 400 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.333 | 0.308 to 0.368 | +/- 0.030 |
| ISO | 0.155 | 0.111 to 0.231 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 5.7% | 3.4% to 8.0% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.1% | 39.3% to 49.2% | +/- 4.9% |
| K% | 19.3% | 15.6% to 26.7% | +/- 5.5% |
| BB% | 9.4% | 7.4% to 12.1% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.299 | 0.279 to 0.343 | +/- 0.032 |
vs LHP
363 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.268 |
| K% | 13.4% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 4.0% |
vs RHP
871 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.264 |
| K% | 14.4% |
| BB% | 8.0% |
| Barrel | 4.2% |