Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
Cortes, Carlos
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team ATH
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
69
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.293 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.379 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.333 |
| Observed weight | 47% |
xwOBA
0.303
0.317
0.333
0.349
0.363
wOBA
0.350
0.371
0.395
0.418
0.440
ISO
0.134
0.156
0.180
0.205
0.226
K%
10.5%
12.8%
15.2%
17.7%
20.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.7%
72
+17 vs proj
Exit velocity90.0
71
Hard-hit%41.8%
60
xBA0.339
65
xSLG0.530
54
xwOBA0.379
94
+38 vs proj
BB%10.9%
74
+32 vs proj
Bat speed68.8
39
K%10.4%
98
+45 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · RF
63
Arm Strength91.6 · RF
41
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
44
Range Runs-5.4 · RF
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · RF
14
Sprint Speed25.9 · RF
18
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.8% · rebadged research
89
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.8% · rebadged research
89
Changeup Stuff+97
17
Correct Decisions72.4% · rebadged research
94
Mithrandir Stuff+87
6
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.316 · borderline
9
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · insufficient sample
26
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.296 · validated thin sample
12
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · insufficient sample
26
Resists FastballwOBA 0.376 · validated
7
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370 · validated
24
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline113
95
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
133 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.062 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.078 |
| Sample | 193 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 251 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.317 | 0.229 to 0.309 | +/- 0.040 |
| ISO | 0.176 | 0.083 to 0.246 | +/- 0.081 |
| Barrel% | 5.5% | 1.9% to 7.8% | +/- 3.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 39.4% | 26.7% to 45.8% | +/- 9.6% |
| K% | 21.4% | 12.1% to 29.1% | +/- 8.5% |
| BB% | 8.1% | 3.0% to 9.8% | +/- 3.4% |
| BABIP | 0.301 | 0.245 to 0.364 | +/- 0.060 |
vs LHP
5 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.086 |
| K% | 6.6% |
| BB% | 1.3% |
| Barrel | 1.5% |
vs RHP
110 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.093 |
| K% | 6.2% |
| BB% | 1.4% |
| Barrel | 2.1% |