Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026

Bohm, Alec

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.332 xwOBA
Range
0.298 to 0.382
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
42
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
46
Defense3 metrics
18
Speed1 metrics
25
Plate skills10 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
xwOBA preseason0.333
xwOBA current pace0.299
xwOBA rolling p500.311
Observed weight64%
xwOBA
0.287 0.298 0.311 0.324 0.335
wOBA
0.282 0.296 0.312 0.327 0.341
ISO
0.124 0.136 0.149 0.163 0.175
K%
13.5% 14.5% 15.5% 16.6% 17.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.8%
30
Exit velocity90.2
77
Hard-hit%40.9%
58
xBA0.289
20
xSLG0.440
25
xwOBA0.299
42 -31 vs proj
BB%6.5%
25
Bat speed69.4
45
K%14.9%
87
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.2 · 3B
16
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
28
Range Runs-4.8 · 3B
10
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · 3B
25
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-17
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.8% · rebadged research
83
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7% · rebadged research
55
Correct Decisions69.8% · rebadged research
84
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · borderline
58
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · insufficient sample
13
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303 · validated thin sample
10
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · insufficient sample
18
Resists FastballwOBA 0.326 · validated
74
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.307 · validated
100
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Bohm, Alec · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.299 2026-07-06: 0.3012026-07-07: 0.3022026-07-08: 0.3012026-07-09: 0.3012026-07-10: 0.3022026-07-11: 0.3012026-07-12: 0.3032026-07-13: 0.3002026-07-14: 0.2992026-07-15: 0.2992026-07-16: 0.2992026-07-17: 0.299 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Alec Bohm's tools (89) outpace production (82) by 7 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Also flagged: Contact-Discipline Mismatch. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low
+19.2° Current -3° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Contact-Discipline Mismatch
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

213 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Bohm, Alec · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 8% of plotted batted ballsPull 8%Center field third: 77% of plotted batted ballsCenter 77%Right field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsOppo 15% LF 329 CF 401 RF 330 2026-03-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 105.0 / LA -19.02026-03-15 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 84.9 / LA 43.02026-03-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 89.4 / LA -6.02026-03-17 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 10.02026-03-17 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.5 / LA -15.02026-03-17 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 84.7 / LA 3.02026-03-19 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 82.1 / LA -49.02026-03-19 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 78.8 / LA 1.02026-03-19 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.1 / LA -24.02026-03-19 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 80.7 / LA -12.02026-03-20 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.6 / LA 25.02026-03-20 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 105.3 / LA 6.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 40.02026-03-23 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 81.1 / LA 49.02026-03-23 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.8 / LA 3.02026-03-26 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 32.02026-03-26 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 94.7 / LA 30.02026-03-26 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA -16.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · popup · EV 52.8 / LA 45.02026-03-28 · single · CH · fly_ball · EV 71.7 / LA 28.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.5 / LA 54.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 97.6 / LA 22.02026-03-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 65.1 / LA -51.02026-03-29 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 51.7 / LA 15.02026-03-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.7 / LA 53.02026-03-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.8 / LA 7.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.4 / LA -4.02026-03-30 · field error · FF · popup · EV 88.9 / LA 79.02026-03-31 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 95.8 / LA 31.02026-03-31 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 103.9 / LA 9.02026-03-31 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.2 / LA -19.02026-04-01 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 75.1 / LA 13.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 92.1 / LA 28.02026-04-01 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA -5.02026-04-01 · field error · CU · ground_ball · EV 91.4 / LA -16.02026-04-03 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 93.8 / LA -14.02026-04-03 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 26.02026-04-03 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 76.5 / LA 17.02026-04-03 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 105.3 / LA -7.02026-04-04 · field out · CU · popup · EV 78.9 / LA 69.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 63.0 / LA -42.02026-04-04 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 90.1 / LA 14.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.1 / LA 24.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.2 / LA -11.02026-04-05 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 68.5 / LA -43.02026-04-06 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 86.5 / LA 15.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.2 / LA -10.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 75.5 / LA -15.02026-04-06 · double · FS · ground_ball · EV 66.4 / LA -2.02026-04-08 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 76.3 / LA -41.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.6 / LA -20.02026-04-08 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 82.8 / LA 23.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.8 / LA -10.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 83.6 / LA 25.02026-04-11 · field error · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA -26.02026-04-11 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 100.2 / LA 19.02026-04-11 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 81.9 / LA -39.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.6 / LA -5.02026-04-12 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 91.7 / LA 21.02026-04-13 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 100.2 / LA 11.02026-04-13 · sac fly · SI · line_drive · EV 99.7 / LA 23.02026-04-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.8 / LA -28.02026-04-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.1 / LA -2.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.7 / LA 2.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 47.02026-04-15 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 101.1 / LA -3.02026-04-17 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 89.6 / LA 30.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · popup · EV 80.8 / LA 78.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 39.02026-04-18 · field out · SL · popup · EV 81.7 / LA 73.02026-04-18 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 91.2 / LA -6.02026-04-18 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 94.7 / LA 2.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · popup · EV 65.1 / LA 64.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 83.4 / LA 1.02026-04-19 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.6 / LA -18.02026-04-20 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 96.2 / LA 19.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.7 / LA -20.02026-04-21 · sac fly · FF · line_drive · EV 96.3 / LA 23.02026-04-21 · field error · FS · ground_ball · EV 76.2 / LA -3.02026-04-21 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 86.3 / LA 5.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 67.5 / LA 4.02026-04-22 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.5 / LA 9.02026-04-22 · field out · CH · popup · EV 77.7 / LA 69.02026-04-22 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 85.1 / LA 19.02026-04-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.7 / LA 9.02026-04-23 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 98.7 / LA 27.02026-04-23 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.5 / LA -30.02026-04-24 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 71.6 / LA -15.02026-04-24 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 102.5 / LA 20.02026-04-24 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 83.6 / LA 12.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 99.7 / LA 7.02026-04-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 57.0 / LA -11.02026-04-25 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA -9.02026-04-25 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 44.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.8 / LA 35.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.9 / LA 31.02026-04-28 · field out · ST · popup · EV 72.2 / LA 76.02026-04-28 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 103.8 / LA 19.02026-04-28 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 91.5 / LA 14.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.7 / LA 1.02026-04-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 87.7 / LA -34.02026-04-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.9 / LA -11.02026-04-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.1 / LA -23.02026-04-30 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.4 / LA 34.02026-05-01 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 94.7 / LA -4.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 91.0 / LA 23.02026-05-01 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 98.9 / LA 14.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 44.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.6 / LA -16.02026-05-03 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 91.3 / LA 28.02026-05-03 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 84.4 / LA 24.02026-05-03 · fielders choice · ST · ground_ball2026-05-03 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 79.1 / LA 27.02026-05-04 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 89.6 / LA 55.02026-05-04 · fielders choice · SL · ground_ball · EV 102.9 / LA -7.02026-05-04 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 95.1 / LA -13.02026-05-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 55.4 / LA -20.02026-05-05 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 89.2 / LA 16.02026-05-05 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 79.9 / LA 29.02026-05-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA -37.02026-05-06 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 85.5 / LA 29.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · popup · EV 70.7 / LA 71.02026-05-09 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 38.02026-05-09 · home run · KC · line_drive · EV 101.7 / LA 22.02026-05-09 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.5 / LA -15.02026-05-09 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA -5.02026-05-10 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 87.9 / LA 44.02026-05-10 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 69.9 / LA 10.02026-05-10 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 86.9 / LA -17.02026-05-12 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.6 / LA -6.02026-05-12 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.3 / LA -7.02026-05-12 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 92.2 / LA 27.02026-05-13 · field out · FC · popup · EV 70.7 / LA 51.02026-05-13 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 96.4 / LA 16.02026-05-13 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 93.1 / LA 14.02026-05-14 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.6 / LA -14.02026-05-14 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 98.4 / LA 7.02026-05-14 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.9 / LA -22.02026-05-15 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.0 / LA -19.02026-05-15 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.8 / LA -11.02026-05-15 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 66.9 / LA -24.02026-05-15 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 44.02026-05-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.9 / LA -12.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.0 / LA 55.02026-05-16 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -9.02026-05-16 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 24.02026-05-16 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 97.5 / LA 9.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · popup · EV 88.7 / LA 80.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA 6.02026-05-17 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 33.02026-05-17 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 102.0 / LA 15.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.6 / LA 34.02026-05-18 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 103.6 / LA 24.02026-05-18 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 76.0 / LA 19.02026-05-19 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 107.4 / LA 15.02026-05-19 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 99.7 / LA -36.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · popup · EV 81.8 / LA 58.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.7 / LA 40.02026-05-20 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 107.0 / LA 20.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 23.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.6 / LA -10.02026-05-23 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 84.8 / LA 9.02026-05-23 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 96.3 / LA 10.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.7 / LA -2.02026-05-24 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 0.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.2 / LA 48.02026-05-24 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 63.7 / LA -31.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.9 / LA 8.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 5.02026-05-25 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.6 / LA -19.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.3 / LA 53.02026-05-26 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.7 / LA -5.02026-05-26 · field out · CH · popup · EV 87.8 / LA 60.02026-05-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.2 / LA -9.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.6 / LA -17.02026-05-27 · field out · FS · popup · EV 69.5 / LA 34.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.3 / LA 35.02026-05-27 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 105.9 / LA 9.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.3 / LA -18.02026-05-31 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 97.5 / LA 11.02026-06-04 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 87.2 / LA 8.02026-06-04 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 108.3 / LA 5.02026-06-05 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 93.5 / LA 21.02026-06-05 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 100.6 / LA 9.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 92.1 / LA 9.02026-06-07 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 86.2 / LA 12.02026-06-07 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 95.4 / LA 15.02026-06-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.3 / LA -35.02026-06-15 · sac fly · ST · fly_ball · EV 92.6 / LA 40.02026-06-18 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.9 / LA -25.02026-06-18 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.4 / LA 30.02026-06-18 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 4.02026-06-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.5 / LA -11.02026-06-20 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 82.9 / LA 22.02026-06-20 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 85.4 / LA 52.02026-06-20 · field out · EP · ground_ball · EV 84.7 / LA -19.02026-06-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.8 / LA 44.02026-06-22 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 107.0 / LA -5.02026-06-22 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.4 / LA -15.02026-06-22 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 85.9 / LA 38.02026-06-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.3 / LA -6.02026-06-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.8 / LA -21.02026-06-24 · field error · SL · ground_ball · EV 66.5 / LA -27.02026-06-24 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 102.5 / LA 23.02026-06-26 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA -22.02026-06-26 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.9 / LA 2.02026-06-26 · double play · SI · line_drive · EV 75.4 / LA 5.02026-06-30 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 95.3 / LA 20.02026-06-30 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 84.0 / LA -38.02026-06-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.8 / LA 29.02026-06-30 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 7.02026-07-01 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 27.02026-07-01 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 87.3 / LA 6.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Bohm, Alec · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 70.6 mph Hard swing rate 10% Whiff / swing 19% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Bohm, Alec · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 49%49%Chase: 25%25%Whiff: 15%15%Zone contact: 90%90%Contact: 85%85%Hard hit: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.032
wOBA Δ-0.020
Sample397 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances534----
Home Runs14----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3320.298 to 0.382+/- 0.042
ISO0.1410.106 to 0.228+/- 0.061
Barrel%4.5%3.3% to 7.4%+/- 2.0%
Hard-Hit%44.0%41.4% to 51.4%+/- 5.0%
K%15.7%13.5% to 21.0%+/- 3.7%
BB%6.3%4.8% to 9.6%+/- 2.4%
BABIP0.3020.279 to 0.350+/- 0.036
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

916 career PA

xwOBA0.297
K%12.0%
BB%6.2%
Barrel5.3%
vs RHP

2324 career PA

xwOBA0.288
K%14.0%
BB%5.7%
Barrel4.1%