Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026
Bohm, Alec
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team PHI
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.333 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.294 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.312 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.284
0.298
0.312
0.327
0.340
wOBA
0.282
0.300
0.320
0.340
0.358
ISO
0.114
0.129
0.146
0.163
0.178
K%
12.8%
13.9%
15.1%
16.3%
17.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.0%
29
Barrel%2.5%
18
-24 vs proj
Bat speed69.6
49
Exit velocity90.4
77
Hard-hit%42.8%
63
K%13.6%
90
xBA0.283
17
xSLG0.411
17
xwOBA0.294
35
-34 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength80.4 · 3B
13
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
27
Range Runs-1.9 · 3B
21
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.4 · 3B
25
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.6% · rebadged research
89
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3% · rebadged research
48
Correct Decisions70.4% · rebadged research
87
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
82
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · borderline
76
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.294 · insufficient sample
13
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.305 · validated thin sample
5
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.349 · insufficient sample
18
Resists FastballwOBA 0.316 · validated
89
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.312 · validated
99
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
180 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.038 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.012 |
| Sample | 243 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 534 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.332 | 0.298 to 0.382 | +/- 0.042 |
| ISO | 0.141 | 0.106 to 0.228 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% | 4.5% | 3.3% to 7.4% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.0% | 41.4% to 51.4% | +/- 5.0% |
| K% | 15.7% | 13.5% to 21.0% | +/- 3.7% |
| BB% | 6.3% | 4.8% to 9.6% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.302 | 0.279 to 0.350 | +/- 0.036 |
vs LHP
916 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.297 |
| K% | 12.0% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 5.3% |
vs RHP
2324 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.288 |
| K% | 14.0% |
| BB% | 5.7% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |