Mithrandir Metrics
Player ATH Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / ATH

Carlos Cortes

Player · Bats/Throws L/S · 5' 7", 197 lb · Age 29

Cards
20
Modules
2
Live Δ
yes
Club ATH Position -- Roster profile Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
202599112940.309.323.543.866
20263753086102.255.323.404.727
2 Seasons47441115142.267.323.434.757
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
42
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
46
Defense4 metrics
29
Speed1 metrics
19
Plate skills13 metrics
44
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
xwOBA preseason0.293
xwOBA current pace0.303
xwOBA rolling p500.299
Observed weight64%
xwOBA
0.275 0.286 0.299 0.312 0.323
wOBA
0.292 0.306 0.322 0.338 0.353
ISO
0.127 0.142 0.160 0.177 0.192
K%
14.4% 16.0% 17.8% 19.6% 21.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
44 -16 vs proj
Exit velocity88.5
57
Hard-hit%36.0%
39 -17 vs proj
xBA0.298
27
xSLG0.454
33
xwOBA0.303
51 -15 vs proj
BB%8.0%
45
Bat speed68.7
37
K%16.8%
83 +24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · RF
62
Arm Strength92.5 · RF
41
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · RF
9
Range Runs-8.1 · RF
2
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.1 · RF
19
SB Success Rate50.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.0% · rebadged research
79
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.9% · rebadged research
75
Correct Decisions70.1% · rebadged research
87
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
87
Changeup Stuff+87
4
Mithrandir Stuff+80
5
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.317 · borderline
13
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
49
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292 · validated thin sample
22
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
69
Resists FastballwOBA 0.383 · validated
6
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
75
Slider Stuff+76
0
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Cortes, Carlos · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.303 2026-09-12: 0.3052026-09-13: 0.3042026-09-14: 0.3052026-09-18: 0.3022026-09-19: 0.3022026-09-20: 0.3022026-09-21: 0.3012026-09-22: 0.3012026-09-23: 0.3052026-09-24: 0.3052026-09-25: 0.3052026-09-26: 0.303 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

2Pitches 2026Season 95%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Cortes, Carlos · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 49%49%Chase: 28%28%Whiff: 21%21%Zone contact: 85%85%Contact: 79%79%Hard hit: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cortes, Carlos · 2026 arsenal snapshot Other: 95.0%Eephus: 5.0% FA95% · 72 mphprimary pitch FA 95%EP 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cortes, Carlos · 2026 arsenal snapshot 21″42″63″84″ Other: 95% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 71.5 mphFA72 mphEephus: 5% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 72″ drop, 60.7 mphEP61 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 62.5% 45 87 limited sample
SL 30.6% 22 76 limited sample
FB 5.6% 4 71 limited sample
CB 1.4% 1 81 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ-0.014
wOBA Δ+0.006

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.7σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.322
xwOBA (deserved)0.303

Cortes’s wOBA sits at 0.322, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.303 — a gap of 0.020, -0.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 386 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

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Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Hitting22026-04-20Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding182026-09-254 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.005
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.317 xwOBA | 9 HRProjection