Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.247 vs 0.211 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / ATL · 2026
Smith, Dominic
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team ATL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.302 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.369 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.329 |
| Observed weight | 40% |
xwOBA
0.297
0.312
0.329
0.346
0.361
wOBA
0.361
0.386
0.413
0.440
0.465
ISO
0.121
0.143
0.167
0.192
0.214
K%
14.5%
16.3%
18.4%
20.5%
22.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%5.4%
16
-17 vs proj
Barrel%6.8%
72
+29 vs proj
Bat speed66.6
18
Exit velocity88.9
54
Hard-hit%39.0%
46
+19 vs proj
K%12.8%
93
+39 vs proj
xBA0.368
84
xSLG0.590
72
xwOBA0.369
87
+52 vs proj
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.0 · DH
20
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.9% · rebadged research
24
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.4% · rebadged research
37
Correct Decisions65.5% · rebadged research
44
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
42
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.298 · insufficient sample
10
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.255 · validated thin sample
94
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · insufficient sample
19
Resists FastballwOBA 0.379 · validated
6
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
44
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
20
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
108 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.075 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.119 |
| Sample | 148 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 352 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.294 | 0.269 to 0.350 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.128 | 0.085 to 0.232 | +/- 0.074 |
| Barrel% | 4.6% | 3.0% to 8.2% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.2% | 29.6% to 44.9% | +/- 7.7% |
| K% | 21.4% | 17.2% to 29.5% | +/- 6.1% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 4.7% to 10.2% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.287 | 0.236 to 0.338 | +/- 0.051 |
vs LHP
598 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.211 |
| K% | 17.2% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 2.4% |
vs RHP
2030 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.247 |
| K% | 15.5% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 4.4% |