Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.247 vs 0.211 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / ATL · 2026
Smith, Dominic
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team ATL
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
42
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.302 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.314 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.309 |
| Observed weight | 53% |
xwOBA
0.281
0.294
0.309
0.323
0.336
wOBA
0.303
0.321
0.341
0.362
0.380
ISO
0.108
0.126
0.145
0.165
0.183
K%
14.0%
15.6%
17.3%
19.0%
20.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
47
Exit velocity87.6
44
Hard-hit%36.1%
35
xBA0.305
31
xSLG0.472
36
xwOBA0.314
58
+21 vs proj
BB%7.3%
34
Bat speed66.6
16
K%12.9%
94
+37 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
61
Regression applied
Range Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.2 · DH
22
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.3% · rebadged research
33
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.9% · rebadged research
54
Correct Decisions65.8% · rebadged research
45
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · borderline
34
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.297 · insufficient sample
12
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.251 · validated thin sample
97
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.344 · insufficient sample
22
Resists FastballwOBA 0.371 · validated
9
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350 · validated
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
36
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
128 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.020 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.047 |
| Sample | 248 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 352 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.294 | 0.269 to 0.350 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.128 | 0.085 to 0.232 | +/- 0.074 |
| Barrel% | 4.6% | 3.0% to 8.2% | +/- 2.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.2% | 29.6% to 44.9% | +/- 7.7% |
| K% | 21.4% | 17.2% to 29.5% | +/- 6.1% |
| BB% | 7.3% | 4.7% to 10.2% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.287 | 0.236 to 0.338 | +/- 0.051 |
vs LHP
598 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.211 |
| K% | 17.2% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 2.4% |
vs RHP
2030 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.247 |
| K% | 15.5% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 4.4% |