Mithrandir Metrics
Player Washington Nationals Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Washington Nationals

Zack Littell

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 4", 250 lb · Age 30

Cards
10
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Washington Nationals Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20248103.6329290156.11411.25
20251083.8132320186.21301.10
2026764.901912090.0571.31
9 Seasons41354.01253913692.25531.23
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
28
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
19
Arsenal4 metrics
27
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.26
ERA current pace4.90
ERA rolling p504.66
Observed weight63%
ERA
3.61 4.11 4.66 5.22 5.72
FIP
5.01 5.27 5.56 5.86 6.12
K%
14.2% 15.2% 16.2% 17.3% 18.2%
BB%
5.4% 6.0% 6.6% 7.3% 7.9%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.39
37
ERA4.90
27
BB%7.7%
64 -31 vs proj
K%14.9%
6
xwOBA allowed0.381
4
Barrel allowed11.1%
11 -21 vs proj
Fastball velo91.5
11
Hard-hit allowed45.6%
10
Whiff%15.9%
4
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+97
19
Mithrandir Stuff+99
25
Slider Stuff+97
20
Sinker Stuff+102
46
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Littell, Zack · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.381 2026-07-05: 0.3902026-07-06: 0.3842026-07-07: 0.3842026-07-08: 0.3842026-07-09: 0.3842026-07-10: 0.3842026-07-11: 0.3842026-07-12: 0.3812026-07-13: 0.3812026-07-14: 0.3812026-07-15: 0.3812026-07-16: 0.381 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Littell, Zack · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Littell, Zack · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 29.3%4-Seam Fastball: 27.9%Split-Finger: 19.5%Sinker: 14.2%Sweeper: 9.0%Pitch Out: 0.1% SL29% · 88 mphprimary pitch SL 29%FF 28%FS 20%SI 14%ST 9%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Littell, Zack · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 29% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 88.0 mphSL88 mph4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 91.6 mphFF92 mphSplit-Finger: 20% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 83.8 mphFS84 mphSinker: 14% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 91.3 mphSI91 mphSweeper: 9% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 79.2 mphST79 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 88.8 mphPO89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 47.1% 343 97 qualified
FB 35.0% 255 97 qualified
SI 17.9% 130 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age30
Height6' 4"
Weight250 lb
Debut2018-06-05
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.34
K% Δ-0.029

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.376
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.381

Littell’s wOBA-against sits at 0.376, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.381 — a gap of 0.006, -0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 91 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching102026-06-28Slider played up through FS/FF tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202617.8% K | 5.24 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 vs NYM2 ER / 3 K5.0 IP
2026-04-17 vs SF8 ER / 4 K4.0 IP
2026-04-12 @ MIL3 ER / 3 K5.0 IP
2026-04-06 vs STL1 ER / 6 K5.0 IP
2026-03-31 @ PHI3 ER / 1 K5.0 IP