Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs BOS | 7.11 | 31.5% | 33.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 7 | 4 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs MIA | 5.86 | 25.0% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Jack Leiter
Probable starter
|
TEX vs NYY | 5.29 | 25.8% | 28.4% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 3 |
Max Fried
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TEX | 5.11 | 21.3% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 18.8 | 10 | 4 |
Matthew Boyd
Probable starter
|
CHC vs SD | 4.93 | 28.0% | 26.6% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 2 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs TB | 4.74 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Connor Prielipp
Probable starter
|
MIN vs SEA | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Luis Castillo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs MIN | 4.56 | 22.5% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs LAA | 4.52 | 22.6% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TOR | 4.24 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Steven Matz
Probable starter
|
TB vs CLE | 4.03 | 22.8% | 26.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 2 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
STL vs PIT | 3.81 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Randy Vásquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs CHC | 3.68 | 19.1% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Mason Montgomery
Probable starter
|
PIT vs STL | 3.57 | 22.0% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 14.2 | 10 | 1 |
Chris Paddack
Probable starter
|
MIA vs LAD | 3.48 | 20.2% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Jack Kochanowicz
Probable starter
|
LAA vs CWS | 3.15 | 18.0% | 16.0% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.