Mithrandir Metrics
Player Colorado Rockies Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Colorado Rockies

Juan Mejia

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 210 lb · Age 25

Cards
2
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Colorado Rockies Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025223.96550161.1681.26
2026155.97291331.2361.67
2 Seasons374.65841493.01041.40
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-15
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
53
Arsenal5 metrics
42
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-15
ERA preseason3.93
ERA current pace6.23
ERA rolling p504.81
Observed weight38%
ERA
3.42 4.08 4.81 5.55 6.20
FIP
2.93 3.33 3.78 4.23 4.63
K%
20.3% 22.4% 24.7% 27.0% 29.0%
BB%
8.1% 9.4% 10.9% 12.3% 13.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.64
8
ERA6.23
8
BB%12.0%
18 -21 vs proj
K%24.7%
65
xwOBA allowed0.302
62
Barrel allowed3.2%
95 +39 vs proj
Fastball velo97.3
91
Hard-hit allowed38.7%
53
Whiff%27.7%
81
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-06-15
Fastball Stuff+101
39
Mithrandir Stuff+102
48
Slider Stuff+102
51
Changeup Stuff+98
21
Sinker Stuff+102
51
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mejia, Juan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.302 2026-06-04: 0.3082026-06-05: 0.3082026-06-06: 0.3192026-06-07: 0.3192026-06-08: 0.3152026-06-09: 0.3152026-06-10: 0.3152026-06-11: 0.3152026-06-12: 0.3082026-06-13: 0.3082026-06-14: 0.3082026-06-15: 0.302 2026-06-04 2026-06-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mejia, Juan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mejia, Juan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 45.8%Sweeper: 40.4%Sinker: 8.6%Changeup: 3.2%Slider: 2.1% FF46% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 46%ST 40%SI 9%CH 3%SL 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mejia, Juan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 46% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 97.6 mphFF98 mphSweeper: 40% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 84.6 mphST85 mphSinker: 9% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 96.1 mphSI96 mphChangeup: 3% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 93.0 mphCH93 mphSlider: 2% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.5 mphSL88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 43.7% 234 102 qualified
FB 43.7% 234 101 qualified
SI 8.6% 46 102 limited sample
CH 3.9% 21 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age25
Height6' 3"
Weight210 lb
Debut2025-04-24
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.91
K% Δ-0.002

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.338
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.302

Mejia’s wOBA-against sits at 0.338, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.302 — a gap of 0.036, 1.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 32 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching22026-04-164-Seam Fastball played up through FF/ST tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.9% K | 4.32 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 vs TEX0 ER / 1 K0.2 IP
2026-04-14 @ HOU0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-09 @ SD0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP
2026-04-06 vs HOU0 ER / 1 K1.2 IP
2026-04-04 vs PHI0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP