The Comp Constellation

Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 264 qualified hitters (202+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.

strong match (0.55+) moderate (0.45 to 0.55) weaker (< 0.45) star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles

Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Chapman, Matt in signal, the comp in amber.

SF · bats R · 364 PA

Ranked comps for Chapman, Matt

#PlayerSimilarityAgrees onDiffers onOpen
01 Herrera, Iván STL · R · 431 PA 0.72 Isolated powerChase rateBarrel rate Sprint speed -1.7zStrikeout rate -0.9zSwing length +0.9z
02 Realmuto, J.T. PHI · R · 271 PA 0.66 Pull rateSprint speedSwing length Sweet-spot rate +1.3zMax exit velocity -1.3zFly-ball rate +1.1z
03 Mayer, Marcelo BOS · L · 248 PA 0.66 Hard-hit rateBarrel rateIn-zone contact Swing length +1.2zIsolated power -1.1zMax exit velocity -1.0z
04 Bazzana, Travis CLE · L · 294 PA 0.64 Chase rateSweet-spot ratexwOBA on contact Bat speed -2.3zFly-ball rate +1.2zOppo rate -0.9z
05 Bogaerts, Xander SD · R · 379 PA 0.64 In-zone contactFly-ball rateBarrel rate Bat speed -1.5zGround-ball rate +1.5zOppo rate -1.4z
06 Henderson, Gunnar BAL · L · 454 PA 0.63 Strikeout rateWhiff rateSwing length Oppo rate -1.7zPull rate +1.1zHard-hit rate +1.0z
07 Springer, George TOR · R · 312 PA 0.62 Whiff rateWalk rateAvg exit velocity Oppo rate -1.8zBat speed -1.4zSweet-spot rate +1.0z
08 Yelich, Christian MIL · L · 297 PA 0.62 Sweet-spot rateFly-ball rateBarrel rate Ground-ball rate +1.6zWhiff rate +1.3zBat speed -1.1z
09 Collins, Isaac KC · L · 327 PA 0.59 Strikeout rateWhiff ratePull rate Swing length -1.5zBat speed -1.3zFly-ball rate +1.1z
10 Taveras, Leody BAL · L · 304 PA 0.59 Swing lengthOppo rateGround-ball rate Bat speed -1.9zAvg exit velocity -1.6zSweet-spot rate +1.0z
11 Sheets, Gavin SD · L · 341 PA 0.58 Fly-ball rateAvg exit velocityGround-ball rate Sweet-spot rate +1.4zIsolated power +1.3zSprint speed -1.1z
12 Garcia, Maikel KC · R · 304 PA 0.58 Ground-ball rateFly-ball rateSprint speed Bat speed -1.4zIn-zone contact +1.3zSweet-spot rate +1.3z

Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.