Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / BOS · 2026
Mayer, Marcelo
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team BOS
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
24
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.274 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.260 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.267 |
| Observed weight | 49% |
xwOBA
0.224
0.244
0.267
0.289
0.310
wOBA
0.270
0.290
0.311
0.332
0.352
ISO
0.089
0.108
0.129
0.150
0.169
K%
16.6%
18.6%
20.9%
23.2%
25.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.2%
51
Exit velocity87.1
34
Hard-hit%37.8%
41
-30 vs proj
xBA0.249
4
xSLG0.369
6
xwOBA0.260
11
-33 vs proj
BB%7.5%
35
Bat speed72.7
86
K%16.9%
80
+50 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength87.7 · 2B
65
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 2B
79
Range Runs0.5 · 2B
56
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.3 · 2B
49
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.4% · rebadged research
39
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.5% · rebadged research
68
Correct Decisions67.0% · rebadged research
59
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
58
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · insufficient sample
67
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.246 · validated thin sample
98
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.304 · insufficient sample
98
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355 · validated
22
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
45
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
48
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
137 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.044 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.008 |
| Sample | 213 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 278 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 8 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.303 | 0.188 to 0.339 | +/- 0.075 |
| ISO | 0.191 | 0.084 to 0.234 | +/- 0.075 |
| Barrel% | 5.9% | 1.9% to 8.2% | +/- 3.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 44.9% | 30.7% to 51.1% | +/- 10.2% |
| K% | 25.8% | 17.8% to 33.6% | +/- 7.9% |
| BB% | 7.8% | 3.7% to 10.1% | +/- 3.2% |
| BABIP | 0.304 | 0.214 to 0.352 | +/- 0.069 |
vs LHP
32 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.096 |
| K% | 12.1% |
| BB% | 3.0% |
| Barrel | 1.7% |
vs RHP
136 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.110 |
| K% | 11.3% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 2.6% |