The Comp Constellation
Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 255 qualified hitters (336+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.
strong match (0.55+)
moderate (0.45 to 0.55)
weaker (< 0.45)
star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles
Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Arenado, Nolan in signal, the comp in amber.
AZ · bats R · 610 PA
Ranked comps for Arenado, Nolan
| # | Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Differs on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Heim, Jonah ATH · L · 402 PA | 0.58 | Sprint speedHard-hit rateFly-ball rate | Swing length -2.0zIsolated power -1.4zPull rate -1.3z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 02 | Adames, Willy SF · R · 517 PA | 0.51 | Chase ratePull rateMax exit velocity | Sprint speed +2.0zStrikeout rate +1.4zSweet-spot rate +1.2z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 03 | Bellinger, Cody NYY · L · 578 PA | 0.50 | Ground-ball rateBarrel rateBat speed | Sweet-spot rate +1.7zSprint speed +1.7zAvg exit velocity +1.5z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 04 | Varsho, Daulton TOR · L · 546 PA | 0.48 | Sweet-spot rateStrikeout ratexwOBA on contact | Isolated power -1.8zSprint speed +1.7zSwing length -1.7z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 05 | Yastrzemski, Mike ATL · L · 415 PA | 0.45 | Bat speedWhiff rateGround-ball rate | Swing length -2.2zAvg exit velocity +1.7zSprint speed +1.5z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 06 | Semien, Marcus NYM · R · 564 PA | 0.43 | xwOBA on contactGround-ball rateWhiff rate | Sprint speed +2.4zIsolated power -2.0zSwing length -1.5z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 07 | Springer, George TOR · R · 534 PA | 0.42 | xwOBA on contactWhiff rateBarrel rate | Swing length -2.2zSprint speed +1.4zAvg exit velocity +1.3z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 08 | Larnach, Trevor MIN · L · 449 PA | 0.41 | In-zone contactGround-ball rateStrikeout rate | Swing length -3.0zSweet-spot rate +1.8zSprint speed +1.2z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 09 | Bell, Josh MIN · L · 646 PA | 0.41 | Strikeout rateIn-zone contactFly-ball rate | Max exit velocity +1.9zAvg exit velocity +1.6zIsolated power -1.4z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 10 | Altuve, Jose HOU · R · 583 PA | 0.41 | Max exit velocityPull rateStrikeout rate | Swing length -2.0zSprint speed +1.9zIsolated power -1.7z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 11 | Paredes, Isaac HOU · R · 666 PA | 0.41 | Sprint speedHard-hit ratexwOBA on contact | Sweet-spot rate +1.8zGround-ball rate -1.6zSwing length -1.6z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 12 | Carrigg, Cole COL · L · 376 PA | 0.41 | Ground-ball rateIn-zone contactBarrel rate | Sprint speed +2.7zSwing length -2.2zSweet-spot rate +1.5z | Player Projection Swing lab |
Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.