Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Carrigg, Cole
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
57
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.268 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.315 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.298 |
| Observed weight | 63% |
xwOBA
0.254
0.275
0.298
0.321
0.342
wOBA
0.332
0.347
0.364
0.381
0.396
ISO
0.124
0.142
0.162
0.182
0.200
K%
17.3%
19.9%
22.7%
25.6%
28.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
45
Exit velocity87.1
42
Hard-hit%38.1%
49
xBA0.340
75
xSLG0.549
65
xwOBA0.315
64
+29 vs proj
BB%7.7%
41
Bat speed70.5
64
K%23.4%
48
+19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.1 · CF
79
Arm Strength101.2 · CF
96
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
50
Range Runs-1.6 · CF
34
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.0 · CF
77
Bolts7.0 · CF
54
SB Success Rate76.9% · CF
40
Sprint Speed28.7 · CF
84
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.2% · rebadged research
24
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.6% · rebadged research
66
Correct Decisions64.9% · rebadged research
37
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
66
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.300 · insufficient sample
11
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.301 · validated thin sample
14
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.297 · insufficient sample
95
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349 · validated
29
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.338 · validated
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
32
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
118 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.025 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.073 |
| Sample | 376 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 202 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.290 | 0.102 to 0.317 | +/- 0.108 |
| ISO | 0.137 | 0.025 to 0.210 | +/- 0.092 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 0.2% to 4.9% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.6% | 9.7% to 38.9% | +/- 14.6% |
| K% | 26.5% | 8.1% to 35.7% | +/- 13.8% |
| BB% | 7.5% | 0.5% to 9.3% | +/- 4.4% |
| BABIP | 0.291 | 0.154 to 0.350 | +/- 0.098 |
vs LHP
0 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 1.4% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
5 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.001 |
| K% | 1.3% |
| BB% | 0.0% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |