Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026

Heim, Jonah

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.291 xwOBA
Range
0.268 to 0.345
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Ground-ball contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
33
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
37
Defense6 metrics
52
Speed1 metrics
8
Plate skills10 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.299
xwOBA current pace0.297
xwOBA rolling p500.298
Observed weight47%
xwOBA
0.270 0.283 0.298 0.313 0.326
wOBA
0.297 0.318 0.341 0.364 0.385
ISO
0.150 0.167 0.185 0.203 0.219
K%
17.1% 18.5% 20.0% 21.5% 22.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
45
Exit velocity86.8
31
Hard-hit%29.5%
13 -27 vs proj
xBA0.297
24
xSLG0.496
45
xwOBA0.297
40
BB%7.3%
34
Bat speed68.4
32
K%19.3%
69
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.5 · C
76
Catcher Throwing-0.9 · C
24
Framing Runs0.5 · C
59
Outs Above Avg0.0 · C
65
Pop Time2.0 · C
21
Range Runs0.0 · C
67
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.3 · C
8
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.7% · rebadged research
51
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.9% · rebadged research
25
Correct Decisions65.5% · rebadged research
43
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
56
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.298 · insufficient sample
11
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264 · validated thin sample
89
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample
79
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349 · validated
29
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
44
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
37
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Heim, Jonah · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.297 2026-07-05: 0.3032026-07-06: 0.2992026-07-07: 0.3052026-07-08: 0.3052026-07-09: 0.3042026-07-10: 0.3052026-07-11: 0.3022026-07-12: 0.2962026-07-13: 0.2982026-07-14: 0.2972026-07-15: 0.2972026-07-16: 0.297 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Jonah Heim's tools (82) outpace production (68) by 14 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low
+12.3° Current 4° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

86 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Heim, Jonah · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsPull 15%Center field third: 65% of plotted batted ballsCenter 65%Right field third: 20% of plotted batted ballsOppo 20% LF 325 CF 403 RF 325 2026-03-21 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 58.7 / LA 28.02026-03-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 74.2 / LA -55.02026-03-21 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 71.4 / LA 15.02026-03-22 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA -9.02026-03-22 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 103.1 / LA 8.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.4 / LA 44.02026-03-23 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 57.3 / LA -52.02026-03-23 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 39.02026-03-27 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 81.3 / LA 52.02026-03-27 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 100.8 / LA -25.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · popup · EV 75.6 / LA 76.02026-04-03 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 93.0 / LA 41.02026-04-03 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.1 / LA -17.02026-04-07 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 73.0 / LA -11.02026-04-07 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 65.5 / LA 35.02026-04-07 · field out · CH · popup · EV 72.5 / LA 69.02026-04-07 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.9 / LA -10.02026-04-08 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 28.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.8 / LA 36.02026-04-08 · field out · ST · popup · EV 78.9 / LA 69.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · popup · EV 80.1 / LA 67.02026-04-11 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 85.5 / LA 13.02026-04-11 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.3 / LA -22.02026-04-11 · field out · FC · line_drive · EV 48.0 / LA 36.02026-04-18 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 102.0 / LA 11.02026-04-18 · double · CH · line_drive · EV 102.4 / LA 19.02026-04-21 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 69.0 / LA -16.02026-04-21 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 101.2 / LA 21.02026-04-21 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 91.5 / LA -2.02026-04-21 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 102.6 / LA -12.02026-04-22 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 93.2 / LA 11.02026-04-22 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 72.9 / LA -37.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 26.02026-04-29 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 70.2 / LA -15.02026-04-29 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.5 / LA -5.02026-05-01 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 82.8 / LA -13.02026-05-01 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 73.0 / LA 63.02026-05-01 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 87.5 / LA 22.02026-05-03 · home run · KC · fly_ball · EV 104.6 / LA 32.02026-05-03 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 82.6 / LA -26.02026-05-03 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 90.1 / LA 29.02026-05-03 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 79.1 / LA 40.02026-05-03 · double · ST · fly_ball · EV 95.3 / LA 25.02026-05-06 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 86.6 / LA 36.02026-05-06 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 92.8 / LA 19.02026-05-06 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 88.8 / LA 44.02026-05-06 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA -24.02026-05-12 · grounded into double play · ST · ground_ball · EV 74.7 / LA 5.02026-05-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.6 / LA 34.02026-05-13 · field out · FF · popup · EV 52.6 / LA 43.02026-05-16 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 84.1 / LA -26.02026-05-17 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.0 / LA -1.02026-05-17 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 61.7 / LA -55.02026-05-17 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 91.0 / LA 12.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 77.4 / LA 28.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 60.1 / LA -11.02026-05-19 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 90.3 / LA 10.02026-05-19 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA 5.02026-05-24 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 99.8 / LA 15.02026-05-24 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.6 / LA 5.02026-05-27 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 78.3 / LA 23.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.0 / LA 28.02026-05-31 · field error · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.6 / LA 53.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 105.6 / LA 10.02026-05-31 · home run · SI · line_drive · EV 105.7 / LA 23.02026-05-31 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 76.3 / LA 0.02026-05-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.4 / LA 51.02026-06-04 · home run · FS · fly_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 26.02026-06-04 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 71.5 / LA -19.02026-06-04 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 64.2 / LA -39.02026-06-18 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 8.02026-06-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.1 / LA -22.02026-06-18 · field out · FF · popup · EV 80.1 / LA 65.02026-06-18 · field error · FS · fly_ball · EV 83.8 / LA 59.02026-06-20 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 80.3 / LA 37.02026-06-20 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 75.8 / LA 11.02026-06-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.8 / LA 42.02026-06-26 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 30.02026-06-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 79.3 / LA 47.02026-06-26 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 69.7 / LA -50.02026-06-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 48.7 / LA -84.02026-06-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.6 / LA 27.02026-06-30 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 103.4 / LA 20.02026-07-01 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.4 / LA 1.02026-07-01 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA -14.02026-07-01 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.5 / LA 28.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

No bat tracking

No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Heim, Jonah · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 34%34%Whiff: 23%23%Zone contact: 85%85%Contact: 77%77%Hard hit: 29%29% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.005
wOBA Δ+0.049
Sample192 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances474----
Home Runs13----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.2910.268 to 0.345+/- 0.038
ISO0.1210.103 to 0.214+/- 0.056
Barrel%4.4%2.7% to 6.8%+/- 2.1%
Hard-Hit%36.8%32.0% to 44.6%+/- 6.3%
K%20.0%16.3% to 24.9%+/- 4.3%
BB%6.7%4.3% to 9.7%+/- 2.7%
BABIP0.2720.230 to 0.325+/- 0.048
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

604 career PA

xwOBA0.247
K%16.0%
BB%6.3%
Barrel4.5%
vs RHP

1767 career PA

xwOBA0.233
K%16.0%
BB%5.6%
Barrel3.8%