Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / ATH · 2026
Heim, Jonah
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team ATH
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.299 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.283 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.294 |
| Observed weight | 29% |
xwOBA
0.262
0.277
0.294
0.311
0.327
wOBA
0.256
0.286
0.319
0.352
0.382
ISO
0.117
0.137
0.159
0.181
0.201
K%
16.1%
17.6%
19.4%
21.2%
22.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.8%
46
+21 vs proj
Barrel%3.3%
26
-15 vs proj
Bat speed68.2
31
Exit velocity85.3
17
Hard-hit%25.4%
7
-30 vs proj
K%16.5%
81
+20 vs proj
xBA0.270
12
xSLG0.430
24
xwOBA0.283
26
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.2 · C
55
Catcher Throwing-1.0 · C
14
Framing Runs0.3 · C
53
Pop Time2.0 · C
32
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.3 · C
9
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.5% · rebadged research
49
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5% · rebadged research
27
Correct Decisions64.2% · rebadged research
31
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
40
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · insufficient sample
11
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267 · validated thin sample
77
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.301 · insufficient sample
98
Resists FastballwOBA 0.345 · validated
40
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
39
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
67 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.009 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.028 |
| Sample | 91 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 474 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 13 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.291 | 0.268 to 0.345 | +/- 0.038 |
| ISO | 0.121 | 0.103 to 0.214 | +/- 0.056 |
| Barrel% | 4.4% | 2.7% to 6.8% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.8% | 32.0% to 44.6% | +/- 6.3% |
| K% | 20.0% | 16.3% to 24.9% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 6.7% | 4.3% to 9.7% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.272 | 0.230 to 0.325 | +/- 0.048 |
vs LHP
604 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.247 |
| K% | 16.0% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |
vs RHP
1767 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.233 |
| K% | 16.0% |
| BB% | 5.6% |
| Barrel | 3.8% |