Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-09-11 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-09-11

56 matched props 10 unmatched

Newer: 2026-09-12 Older: 2026-09-10

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 56

Grouped Pitchers 19

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 10

Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder

2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-24 2026-09-23 2026-09-22 2026-09-21 2026-09-20 2026-09-19

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-09-11 | Raw sportsbook rows: 56 | Grouped pitcher entries: 19 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-09-11/strikeout_edges_2026-09-11.json

Cade Cavalli

WSH vs LAA | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.83

Strongest Gap Under +39.47%

Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

6.5

O -132 / U +104

Over gap -45.39% / Under gap +39.47%

Under +39.47%

DraftKings

6.5

O -132 / U +103

Over gap -45.39% / Under gap +39.23%

Under +39.23%

BetMGM

6.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap -44.05% / Under gap +37.27%

Under +37.27%

Model O 11.5% | U 88.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.7

Matthew Liberatore

STL vs CWS | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.80

Strongest Gap Under +24.67%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -103 / U -123

Over gap -30.57% / Under gap +24.67%

Under +24.67%

FanDuel

5.5

O +102 / U -130

Over gap -29.33% / Under gap +23.31%

Under +23.31%

BetMGM

5.5

O +100 / U -135

Over gap -29.83% / Under gap +22.38%

Under +22.38%

Model O 20.2% | U 79.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.9

Drew Rasmussen

TB vs HOU | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.22

Strongest Gap Under +22.45%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O -130 / U -105

Over gap -30.19% / Under gap +22.45%

Under +22.45%

DraftKings

5.5

O -119 / U -108

Over gap -28.01% / Under gap +21.75%

Under +21.75%

FanDuel

5.5

O -102 / U -125

Over gap -24.17% / Under gap +18.11%

Under +18.11%

Model O 26.3% | U 73.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.8

Max Scherzer

TOR vs BAL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.12

Strongest Gap Under +15.49%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O +114 / U -148

Over gap -21.90% / Under gap +15.49%

Under +15.49%

BetMGM

5.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -21.68% / Under gap +14.39%

Under +14.39%

FanDuel

5.5

O +122 / U -156

Over gap -20.22% / Under gap +14.23%

Under +14.23%

Model O 24.8% | U 75.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.0

Shota Imanaga

CHC vs PIT | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.36

Strongest Gap Under +15.03%

Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

6.5

O -110 / U -120

Over gap -21.96% / Under gap +15.03%

Under +15.03%

DraftKings

6.5

O +113 / U -142

Over gap -16.53% / Under gap +10.90%

Under +10.90%

FanDuel

6.5

O +114 / U -146

Over gap -16.31% / Under gap +10.23%

Under +10.23%

Model O 30.4% | U 69.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.1

Ryan Gusto

MIA vs LAD | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 4.61

Strongest Gap Over +12.40%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -108 / U -118

Over gap +12.40% / Under gap -18.45%

Over +12.40%

FanDuel

3.5

O -111 / U -115

Over gap +11.71% / Under gap -17.81%

Over +11.71%

Model O 64.3% | U 35.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.4

Yusei Kikuchi

LAA vs WSH | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.94

Strongest Gap Under +12.12%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -128 / U -102

Over gap -18.76% / Under gap +12.12%

Under +12.12%

FanDuel

5.5

O -111 / U -115

Over gap -15.23% / Under gap +9.13%

Under +9.13%

BetMGM

5.5

O -110 / U -120

Over gap -15.00% / Under gap +8.07%

Under +8.07%

Model O 37.4% | U 62.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.7

George Kirby

SEA vs ATH | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.62

Strongest Gap Over +10.11%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -110 / U -120

Over gap +10.11% / Under gap -17.04%

Over +10.11%

FanDuel

4.5

O -132 / U +104

Over gap +5.59% / Under gap -11.51%

Over +5.59%

DraftKings

4.5

O -136 / U +107

Over gap +4.86% / Under gap -10.80%

Over +4.86%

Model O 62.5% | U 37.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 68.2

Seth Lugo

KC vs BOS | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.84

Strongest Gap Over +8.38%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +134 / U -172

Over gap +8.38% / Under gap -14.36%

Over +8.38%

DraftKings

4.5

O +122 / U -156

Over gap +6.07% / Under gap -12.06%

Over +6.07%

BetMGM

4.5

O +120 / U -160

Over gap +5.67% / Under gap -12.66%

Over +5.67%

Model O 51.1% | U 48.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.5

Chris Sale

ATL vs PHI | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.79

Strongest Gap Under +7.90%

Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

7.5

O -105 / U -121

Over gap -13.87% / Under gap +7.90%

Under +7.90%

FanDuel

7.5

O -102 / U -125

Over gap -13.15% / Under gap +7.09%

Under +7.09%

BetMGM

7.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -13.87% / Under gap +7.09%

Under +7.09%

Model O 37.4% | U 62.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 79.4

Aaron Nola

PHI vs ATL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.18

Strongest Gap Under +5.47%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -111 / U -115

Over gap -11.57% / Under gap +5.47%

Under +5.47%

DraftKings

5.5

O -104 / U -122

Over gap -9.94% / Under gap +4.01%

Under +4.01%

BetMGM

5.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -7.74% / Under gap +0.63%

No Play

Model O 41.0% | U 59.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.2

Robbie Ray

SD vs SF | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.33

Strongest Gap Over +5.44%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -113 / U -113

Over gap +5.44% / Under gap -11.54%

Over +5.44%

BetMGM

4.5

O -120 / U -110

Over gap +3.94% / Under gap -10.87%

Over +3.94%

DraftKings

4.5

O -123 / U -104

Over gap +3.33% / Under gap -9.47%

Over +3.33%

Model O 58.5% | U 41.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.7

Jeffrey Springs

ATH vs SEA | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.65

Strongest Gap Over +4.97%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +132 / U -164

Over gap +4.97% / Under gap -10.19%

Over +4.97%

FanDuel

3.5

O -154 / U +120

Over gap +4.27% / Under gap -10.35%

Over +4.27%

BetMGM

3.5

O -155 / U +115

Over gap +4.12% / Under gap -11.41%

Over +4.12%

Model O 48.1% | U 51.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.7

Carlos Rodón

NYY vs NYM | 3 books

Play

Adj K 5.85

Strongest Gap Over +4.12%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +114 / U -146

Over gap +4.12% / Under gap -10.20%

Over +4.12%

DraftKings

5.5

O +105 / U -139

Over gap +2.07% / Under gap -9.01%

Over +2.07%

BetMGM

5.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -0.37% / Under gap -6.41%

No Play

Model O 50.8% | U 49.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.4

Framber Valdez

DET vs COL | 3 books

Play

Adj K 5.67

Strongest Gap Over +3.14%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -150 / U +110

Over gap +3.14% / Under gap -10.76%

Over +3.14%

DraftKings

4.5

O -157 / U +121

Over gap +2.05% / Under gap -8.39%

Over +2.05%

FanDuel

4.5

O -162 / U +126

Over gap +1.31% / Under gap -7.39%

No Play

Model O 63.1% | U 36.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.7

Andrew Abbott

CIN vs MIL | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 4.00

Strongest Gap Under +1.82%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -169 / U +129

Over gap -8.32% / Under gap +1.82%

Under +1.82%

BetMGM

4.5

O +120 / U -160

Over gap -8.41% / Under gap +1.42%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O -156 / U +122

Over gap -6.43% / Under gap +0.44%

No Play

Model O 54.5% | U 45.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.6

Chris Bassitt

BAL vs TOR | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 3.82

Strongest Gap No Play +1.30%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O +100 / U -135

Over gap +1.30% / Under gap -8.75%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O -104 / U -122

Over gap +0.32% / Under gap -6.25%

No Play

DraftKings

3.5

O -110 / U -115

Over gap -1.08% / Under gap -4.79%

No Play

Model O 51.3% | U 48.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.7

Taj Bradley

MIN vs CLE | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 5.27

Strongest Gap No Play +1.08%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +102 / U -130

Over gap -7.10% / Under gap +1.08%

No Play

DraftKings

5.5

O +110 / U -143

Over gap -5.22% / Under gap -1.25%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -160 / U +120

Over gap -3.91% / Under gap -3.08%

No Play

Model O 42.4% | U 57.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.0

Sonny Gray

BOS vs KC | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 5.26

Strongest Gap No Play -1.60%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +114 / U -146

Over gap -4.48% / Under gap -1.60%

No Play

DraftKings

5.5

O +117 / U -151

Over gap -3.83% / Under gap -2.41%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O +120 / U -160

Over gap -3.20% / Under gap -3.79%

No Play

Model O 42.2% | U 57.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.4

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.