Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
SEA 23:14 UTC Ingest OK
Home / Betting / Strikeout Market Gaps

Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-09-26 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-09-26
66 matched props 46 unmatched
Older: 2026-09-25

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 66
Grouped Pitchers 11
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 46
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-25 2026-09-24 2026-09-23 2026-09-22 2026-09-21 2026-09-20 2026-09-19

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-09-26 | Raw sportsbook rows: 66 | Grouped pitcher entries: 11 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-09-26/strikeout_edges_2026-09-26.json
Nathan Eovaldi headshot

Nathan Eovaldi
TEX vs MIN | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 5.48
Strongest Gap Over +29.34%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap +29.34% / Under gap --
Over +29.34%
FanDuel
5.5
O +480 / U --
Over gap +28.29% / Under gap --
Over +28.29%
FanDuel
3.5
O -104 / U -120
Over gap +24.37% / Under gap -29.90%
Over +24.37%
FanDuel
3.5
O -104 / U -120
Over gap +24.37% / Under gap -29.90%
Over +24.37%
BetMGM
3.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap +24.13% / Under gap -30.91%
Over +24.13%
DraftKings
3.5
O -106 / U -121
Over gap +23.89% / Under gap -30.10%
Over +23.89%
FanDuel
2.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap +10.78% / Under gap --
Over +10.78%
Model O 60.6% | U 39.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.6
Blake Snell headshot

Blake Snell
LAD vs SF | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 6.13
Strongest Gap Under +20.40%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -26.46% / Under gap +20.40%
Under +20.40%
FanDuel
8.5
O +128 / U -164
Over gap -24.25% / Under gap +18.27%
Under +18.27%
Model O 29.1% | U 70.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 76.5
Dustin May headshot

Dustin May
MIL vs STL | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 4.47
Strongest Gap Over +20.10%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap +20.10% / Under gap --
Over +20.10%
FanDuel
3.5
O +134 / U -172
Over gap +19.48% / Under gap -25.46%
Over +19.48%
FanDuel
3.5
O +134 / U -172
Over gap +19.48% / Under gap -25.46%
Over +19.48%
DraftKings
3.5
O +128 / U -163
Over gap +18.36% / Under gap -24.20%
Over +18.36%
FanDuel
5.5
O +700 / U --
Over gap +17.64% / Under gap --
Over +17.64%
FanDuel
2.5
O -225 / U --
Over gap +9.49% / Under gap --
Over +9.49%
Model O 45.1% | U 54.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.3
Tanner Bibee headshot

Tanner Bibee
CLE vs KC | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 4.81
Strongest Gap Over +16.51%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap +16.51% / Under gap --
Over +16.51%
FanDuel
4.5
O +186 / U --
Over gap +15.68% / Under gap --
Over +15.68%
FanDuel
3.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap +12.21% / Under gap -18.14%
Over +12.21%
FanDuel
3.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap +12.21% / Under gap -18.14%
Over +12.21%
DraftKings
3.5
O -143 / U +112
Over gap +8.31% / Under gap -14.33%
Over +8.31%
BetMGM
3.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap +7.16% / Under gap -14.78%
Over +7.16%
FanDuel
2.5
O -390 / U --
Over gap +2.60% / Under gap --
Over +2.60%
Model O 35.4% | U 64.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.0
Jose Quintana headshot

Jose Quintana
COL vs CWS | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 2.96
Strongest Gap Under +13.22%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -20.15% / Under gap +13.22%
Under +13.22%
DraftKings
3.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -18.65% / Under gap +12.55%
Under +12.55%
FanDuel
3.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -18.21% / Under gap +12.11%
Under +12.11%
FanDuel
3.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -18.21% / Under gap +12.11%
Under +12.11%
FanDuel
5.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap -7.90% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +210 / U --
Over gap -13.10% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap -21.24% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 34.4% | U 65.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.5
Justin Verlander headshot

Justin Verlander
DET vs PIT | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.37
Strongest Gap Under +9.85%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +127 / U -160
Over gap -15.44% / Under gap +9.85%
Under +9.85%
FanDuel
7.5
O +460 / U --
Over gap -7.85% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap -12.81% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +126 / U --
Over gap -15.64% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +126 / U --
Over gap -15.64% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -15.74% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -20.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -188 / U --
Over gap -21.86% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 28.6% | U 71.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.7
Michael Wacha headshot

Michael Wacha
KC vs CLE | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.77
Strongest Gap Over +9.76%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap +9.76% / Under gap --
Over +9.76%
FanDuel
6.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap +9.68% / Under gap --
Over +9.68%
FanDuel
4.5
O +132 / U --
Over gap +6.91% / Under gap --
Over +6.91%
BetMGM
3.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap +5.83% / Under gap -13.12%
Over +5.83%
FanDuel
3.5
O -166 / U +130
Over gap +4.20% / Under gap -10.09%
Over +4.20%
FanDuel
3.5
O -166 / U +130
Over gap +4.20% / Under gap -10.09%
Over +4.20%
DraftKings
3.5
O -170 / U +133
Over gap +3.65% / Under gap -9.53%
Over +3.65%
FanDuel
2.5
O -520 / U --
Over gap -2.06% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 34.8% | U 65.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.6
Walker Buehler headshot

Walker Buehler
SD vs AZ | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 3.37
Strongest Gap Under +8.98%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -137 / U +107
Over gap -15.10% / Under gap +8.98%
Under +8.98%
FanDuel
3.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -13.43% / Under gap +7.29%
Under +7.29%
Model O 42.7% | U 57.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 18.9
Davis Martin headshot

Davis Martin
CWS vs COL | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.57
Strongest Gap Over +5.66%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap +5.66% / Under gap --
Over +5.66%
FanDuel
5.5
O +260 / U --
Over gap +3.90% / Under gap --
Over +3.90%
FanDuel
4.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap +2.51% / Under gap -8.59%
Over +2.51%
FanDuel
4.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap +2.51% / Under gap -8.59%
Over +2.51%
DraftKings
4.5
O +119 / U -153
Over gap +1.10% / Under gap -7.23%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -0.86% / Under gap -6.76%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap -3.48% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -620 / U --
Over gap -6.31% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 20.0% | U 80.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.0
Bailey Ober headshot

Bailey Ober
MIN vs TEX | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.71
Strongest Gap Over +1.73%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap +1.73% / Under gap --
Over +1.73%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap +0.27% / Under gap -7.38%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -0.45% / Under gap -5.57%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +190 / U --
Over gap -0.64% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -3.56% / Under gap -2.54%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -3.56% / Under gap -2.54%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -9.68% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -310 / U --
Over gap -9.85% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 21.7% | U 78.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.5
Hayden Wesneski headshot

Hayden Wesneski
HOU vs ATH | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.42
Strongest Gap No Play -0.21%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +100 / U -127
Over gap -5.74% / Under gap -0.21%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap -4.76% / Under gap -1.16%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -2.25% / Under gap -5.04%
No Play
Model O 44.3% | U 55.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.9

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.