Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-09-25 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-09-25

54 matched props 12 unmatched

Newer: 2026-09-26 Older: 2026-09-24

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 54

Grouped Pitchers 18

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 12

Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder

2026-09-26 2026-09-24 2026-09-23 2026-09-22 2026-09-21 2026-09-20 2026-09-19

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-09-25 | Raw sportsbook rows: 54 | Grouped pitcher entries: 18 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-09-25/strikeout_edges_2026-09-25.json

Sean Burke

CWS vs COL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.48

Strongest Gap Under +27.69%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -178 / U +138

Over gap -33.74% / Under gap +27.69%

Under +27.69%

BetMGM

6.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -29.95% / Under gap +22.84%

Under +22.84%

DraftKings

6.5

O +121 / U -154

Over gap -26.42% / Under gap +20.54%

Under +20.54%

Model O 30.3% | U 69.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.8

Freddy Peralta

TB vs PHI | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.96

Strongest Gap Over +22.16%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +124 / U -159

Over gap +22.16% / Under gap -28.19%

Over +22.16%

FanDuel

4.5

O +118 / U -150

Over gap +20.93% / Under gap -26.80%

Over +20.93%

BetMGM

4.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap +19.18% / Under gap -26.80%

Over +19.18%

Model O 66.8% | U 33.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 71.8

Gavin Williams

CLE vs KC | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.30

Strongest Gap Under +21.62%

Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

6.5

O -140 / U +105

Over gap -28.73% / Under gap +21.62%

Under +21.62%

FanDuel

6.5

O -132 / U +104

Over gap -27.30% / Under gap +21.38%

Under +21.38%

DraftKings

6.5

O -127 / U +100

Over gap -26.35% / Under gap +20.40%

Under +20.40%

Model O 29.6% | U 70.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.8

Jackson Jobe

DET vs PIT | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.02

Strongest Gap Under +19.13%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -175 / U +130

Over gap -26.25% / Under gap +19.13%

Under +19.13%

DraftKings

5.5

O +121 / U -154

Over gap -21.90% / Under gap +16.02%

Under +16.02%

FanDuel

5.5

O +124 / U -160

Over gap -21.29% / Under gap +15.11%

Under +15.11%

Model O 37.4% | U 62.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 20.1

Bryce Miller

SEA vs LAA | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.97

Strongest Gap Under +18.54%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O +101 / U -129

Over gap -24.62% / Under gap +18.54%

Under +18.54%

BetMGM

6.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -23.65% / Under gap +16.54%

Under +16.54%

FanDuel

6.5

O +118 / U -150

Over gap -20.74% / Under gap +14.87%

Under +14.87%

Model O 25.1% | U 74.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.9

Michael McGreevy

STL vs MIL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.12

Strongest Gap Under +12.82%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -130 / U +102

Over gap -18.84% / Under gap +12.82%

Under +12.82%

FanDuel

3.5

O -115 / U -111

Over gap -15.81% / Under gap +9.71%

Under +9.71%

BetMGM

3.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap -15.81% / Under gap +8.83%

Under +8.83%

Model O 37.7% | U 62.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 25.1

Jacob deGrom

TEX vs MIN | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.55

Strongest Gap Under +12.41%

Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

6.5

O -106 / U -120

Over gap -18.42% / Under gap +12.41%

Under +12.41%

DraftKings

6.5

O +107 / U -136

Over gap -15.27% / Under gap +9.33%

Under +9.33%

BetMGM

6.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -13.47% / Under gap +6.18%

Under +6.18%

Model O 33.0% | U 67.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 71.0

Tarik Skubal

LAD vs SF | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.54

Strongest Gap Under +11.83%

Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

6.5

O -190 / U +140

Over gap -19.02% / Under gap +11.83%

Under +11.83%

DraftKings

7.5

O +106 / U -135

Over gap -14.33% / Under gap +8.34%

Under +8.34%

FanDuel

7.5

O +108 / U -138

Over gap -13.87% / Under gap +7.81%

Under +7.81%

Model O 46.5% | U 53.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 82.7

Tomoyuki Sugano

COL vs CWS | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.20

Strongest Gap Under +8.77%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -118 / U -108

Over gap -14.82% / Under gap +8.77%

Under +8.77%

BetMGM

3.5

O -120 / U -110

Over gap -15.24% / Under gap +8.31%

Under +8.31%

DraftKings

3.5

O -109 / U -117

Over gap -12.84% / Under gap +6.77%

Under +6.77%

Model O 39.3% | U 60.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.9

Clay Holmes

CHC vs BOS | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.03

Strongest Gap Under +7.89%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -106 / U -120

Over gap -13.90% / Under gap +7.89%

Under +7.89%

BetMGM

4.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -13.66% / Under gap +6.88%

Under +6.88%

FanDuel

4.5

O +114 / U -146

Over gap -9.17% / Under gap +3.09%

Under +3.09%

Model O 37.6% | U 62.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.2

Nick Lodolo

CIN vs TOR | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.99

Strongest Gap Over +7.30%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O -165 / U +125

Over gap +7.30% / Under gap -14.00%

Over +7.30%

FanDuel

4.5

O +110 / U -140

Over gap +5.84% / Under gap -11.79%

Over +5.84%

DraftKings

4.5

O +106 / U -136

Over gap +4.92% / Under gap -11.09%

Over +4.92%

Model O 69.6% | U 30.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.7

Eury Pérez

MIA vs ATL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.81

Strongest Gap Under +6.29%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -13.40% / Under gap +6.29%

Under +6.29%

FanDuel

4.5

O -170 / U +132

Over gap -12.31% / Under gap +6.25%

Under +6.25%

DraftKings

4.5

O -147 / U +115

Over gap -8.86% / Under gap +2.84%

Under +2.84%

Model O 35.4% | U 64.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.1

Hunter Brown

HOU vs ATH | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.36

Strongest Gap Over +5.79%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -108 / U -118

Over gap +5.79% / Under gap -11.84%

Over +5.79%

DraftKings

5.5

O -115 / U -111

Over gap +4.22% / Under gap -10.32%

Over +4.22%

BetMGM

6.5

O +145 / U -200

Over gap +3.29% / Under gap -10.78%

Over +3.29%

Model O 57.7% | U 42.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 73.4

Brandon Pfaadt

AZ vs SD | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 4.31

Strongest Gap Over +2.08%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -136 / U +106

Over gap +2.08% / Under gap -8.25%

Over +2.08%

DraftKings

3.5

O -146 / U +115

Over gap +0.36% / Under gap -6.22%

No Play

BetMGM

3.5

O -155 / U +115

Over gap -1.07% / Under gap -6.22%

No Play

Model O 59.7% | U 40.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.5

Noah Cameron

KC vs CLE | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 4.46

Strongest Gap Over +2.07%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O -150 / U +110

Over gap +2.07% / Under gap -9.69%

Over +2.07%

DraftKings

4.5

O +127 / U -163

Over gap +0.88% / Under gap -6.91%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O +126 / U -162

Over gap +0.68% / Under gap -6.76%

No Play

Model O 62.1% | U 37.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.9

Cristopher Sánchez

PHI vs TB | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 6.09

Strongest Gap No Play +0.79%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -155 / U +122

Over gap -6.62% / Under gap +0.79%

No Play

FanDuel

5.5

O -154 / U +120

Over gap -6.47% / Under gap +0.39%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O -145 / U +105

Over gap -5.02% / Under gap -2.94%

No Play

Model O 54.2% | U 45.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.2

Jacob Lopez

ATH vs HOU | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.75

Strongest Gap No Play +0.56%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -129 / U +101

Over gap -6.64% / Under gap +0.56%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O -104 / U -122

Over gap -1.29% / Under gap -4.64%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -110 / U -120

Over gap -2.69% / Under gap -4.24%

No Play

Model O 49.7% | U 50.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.3

Joe Ryan

MIN vs TEX | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 6.17

Strongest Gap No Play -0.48%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -155 / U +121

Over gap -5.55% / Under gap -0.48%

No Play

FanDuel

6.5

O +128 / U -164

Over gap -2.31% / Under gap -3.67%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O -140 / U +105

Over gap -3.10% / Under gap -4.01%

No Play

Model O 55.2% | U 44.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.7

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.