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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-09-20 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-09-20
47 matched props 21 unmatched
Newer: 2026-09-21 Older: 2026-09-19

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 47
Grouped Pitchers 16
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 21
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-24 2026-09-23 2026-09-22 2026-09-21 2026-09-19

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-09-20 | Raw sportsbook rows: 47 | Grouped pitcher entries: 16 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-09-20/strikeout_edges_2026-09-20.json
Jacob Misiorowski headshot

Jacob Misiorowski
MIL vs BAL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.03
Strongest Gap Under +29.40%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O -172 / U +134
Over gap -35.38% / Under gap +29.40%
Under +29.40%
BetMGM
7.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -32.92% / Under gap +25.63%
Under +25.63%
DraftKings
8.5
O +113 / U -144
Over gap -28.35% / Under gap +22.38%
Under +22.38%
Model O 27.9% | U 72.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.8
Gavin Williams headshot

Gavin Williams
CLE vs ATH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.92
Strongest Gap Under +22.98%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -29.04% / Under gap +22.98%
Under +22.98%
FanDuel
7.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap -25.40% / Under gap +19.35%
Under +19.35%
BetMGM
7.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -24.70% / Under gap +17.92%
Under +17.92%
Model O 26.5% | U 73.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.5
Sandy Alcantara headshot

Sandy Alcantara
MIA vs SD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.81
Strongest Gap Over +15.24%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap +15.24% / Under gap -21.29%
Over +15.24%
DraftKings
3.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap +13.03% / Under gap -19.08%
Over +13.03%
BetMGM
3.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap +9.71% / Under gap -17.16%
Over +9.71%
Model O 67.2% | U 32.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.7
Corbin Burnes headshot

Corbin Burnes
AZ vs NYY | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.75
Strongest Gap Over +13.20%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap +13.20% / Under gap -19.13%
Over +13.20%
DraftKings
4.5
O -104 / U -123
Over gap +13.20% / Under gap -19.34%
Over +13.20%
BetMGM
4.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap +11.80% / Under gap -18.73%
Over +11.80%
Model O 64.2% | U 35.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.4
Dean Kremer headshot

Dean Kremer
MIN vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.92
Strongest Gap Under +12.93%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -19.07% / Under gap +12.93%
Under +12.93%
FanDuel
5.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -17.88% / Under gap +11.95%
Under +11.95%
BetMGM
5.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -16.42% / Under gap +9.44%
Under +9.44%
Model O 37.1% | U 62.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.9
Brandon Young headshot

Brandon Young
BAL vs MIL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.68
Strongest Gap Under +12.06%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -18.08% / Under gap +12.06%
Under +12.06%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -17.36% / Under gap +10.25%
Under +10.25%
FanDuel
4.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap -14.88% / Under gap +8.90%
Under +8.90%
Model O 31.4% | U 68.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 22.2
Walker Buehler headshot

Walker Buehler
SD vs MIA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.66
Strongest Gap Under +10.35%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -184 / U +142
Over gap -16.46% / Under gap +10.35%
Under +10.35%
BetMGM
4.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -15.44% / Under gap +8.15%
Under +8.15%
DraftKings
4.5
O +127 / U -162
Over gap -12.98% / Under gap +7.10%
Under +7.10%
Model O 48.3% | U 51.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.4
Davis Martin headshot

Davis Martin
CWS vs DET | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.37
Strongest Gap Over +8.98%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -107 / U -119
Over gap +8.98% / Under gap -15.01%
Over +8.98%
FanDuel
3.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap +7.62% / Under gap -13.72%
Over +7.62%
BetMGM
3.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap +6.12% / Under gap -13.05%
Over +6.12%
Model O 60.7% | U 39.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 28.9
Cristopher Sánchez headshot

Cristopher Sánchez
PHI vs NYM | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.87
Strongest Gap Under +5.39%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -175 / U +130
Over gap -12.51% / Under gap +5.39%
Under +5.39%
DraftKings
6.5
O +106 / U -136
Over gap -11.09% / Under gap +4.92%
Under +4.92%
FanDuel
6.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap -9.28% / Under gap +3.20%
Under +3.20%
Model O 51.1% | U 48.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.6
Jake Irvin headshot

Jake Irvin
WSH vs STL | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.07
Strongest Gap Over +4.26%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -106 / U -120
Over gap +4.26% / Under gap -10.27%
Over +4.26%
DraftKings
3.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap +3.80% / Under gap -9.85%
Over +3.80%
BetMGM
3.5
O -118 / U -110
Over gap +1.59% / Under gap -8.10%
Over +1.59%
Model O 55.7% | U 44.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.0
Michael Wacha headshot

Michael Wacha
KC vs PIT | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.64
Strongest Gap Under +4.01%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap -10.07% / Under gap +4.01%
Under +4.01%
DraftKings
4.5
O -133 / U +105
Over gap -9.17% / Under gap +3.31%
Under +3.31%
BetMGM
4.5
O -145 / U +105
Over gap -11.27% / Under gap +3.31%
Under +3.31%
Model O 47.9% | U 52.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.2
Martín Pérez headshot

Martín Pérez
ATL vs HOU | 3 books
Play
Adj K 3.22
Strongest Gap Under +3.77%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -9.79% / Under gap +3.77%
Under +3.77%
BetMGM
3.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -10.29% / Under gap +2.84%
Under +2.84%
DraftKings
3.5
O +112 / U -143
Over gap -7.46% / Under gap +1.44%
No Play
Model O 39.7% | U 60.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 18.6
Will Warren headshot

Will Warren
NYY vs AZ | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 4.60
Strongest Gap Under +2.49%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -127 / U -101
Over gap -8.69% / Under gap +2.49%
Under +2.49%
FanDuel
4.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -7.69% / Under gap +1.76%
Under +1.76%
BetMGM
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -3.96% / Under gap -2.82%
No Play
Model O 47.3% | U 52.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.6
Jacob deGrom headshot

Jacob deGrom
TEX vs TOR | 2 books
No Play
Adj K 5.56
Strongest Gap No Play +0.03%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -112 / U -114
Over gap -6.13% / Under gap +0.03%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -2.08% / Under gap -5.03%
No Play
Model O 46.7% | U 53.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 66.0
Hunter Brown headshot

Hunter Brown
HOU vs ATL | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 6.31
Strongest Gap No Play -1.77%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -5.34% / Under gap -1.77%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -2.43% / Under gap -3.44%
No Play
DraftKings
6.5
O +113 / U -144
Over gap -3.51% / Under gap -2.46%
No Play
Model O 43.4% | U 56.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.7
Tomoyuki Sugano headshot

Tomoyuki Sugano
COL vs SEA | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 3.55
Strongest Gap No Play -2.18%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -101 / U -127
Over gap -4.02% / Under gap -2.18%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -3.27% / Under gap -2.75%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -3.77% / Under gap -3.68%
No Play
Model O 46.2% | U 53.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 20.8

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.