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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-09-12 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-09-12
30 matched props 36 unmatched
Newer: 2026-09-13 Older: 2026-09-11

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 30
Grouped Pitchers 10
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 36
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-24 2026-09-23 2026-09-22 2026-09-21 2026-09-20 2026-09-19

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-09-12 | Raw sportsbook rows: 30 | Grouped pitcher entries: 10 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-09-12/strikeout_edges_2026-09-12.json
Kyle Bradish headshot

Kyle Bradish
BAL vs TOR | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.49
Strongest Gap Over +15.78%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap +15.78% / Under gap -21.76%
Over +15.78%
BetMGM
3.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap +15.46% / Under gap -23.08%
Over +15.46%
DraftKings
3.5
O -152 / U +118
Over gap +15.14% / Under gap -21.33%
Over +15.14%
Model O 75.5% | U 24.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.8
Tyler Glasnow headshot

Tyler Glasnow
LAD vs MIA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.22
Strongest Gap Under +12.16%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O +106 / U -136
Over gap -18.33% / Under gap +12.16%
Under +12.16%
BetMGM
7.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -16.30% / Under gap +9.01%
Under +9.01%
FanDuel
7.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -14.84% / Under gap +8.85%
Under +8.85%
Model O 30.2% | U 69.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 79.1
Ranger Suarez headshot

Ranger Suarez
BOS vs KC | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.63
Strongest Gap Under +8.89%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +110 / U -141
Over gap -15.02% / Under gap +8.89%
Under +8.89%
FanDuel
5.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -13.27% / Under gap +7.40%
Under +7.40%
BetMGM
5.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -15.02% / Under gap +7.40%
Under +7.40%
Model O 32.6% | U 67.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.6
Tanner Gordon headshot

Tanner Gordon
COL vs DET | 3 books
Play
Adj K 3.68
Strongest Gap Under +4.57%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -10.65% / Under gap +4.57%
Under +4.57%
FanDuel
3.5
O -142 / U +112
Over gap -9.98% / Under gap +4.13%
Under +4.13%
BetMGM
3.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -8.75% / Under gap +1.30%
No Play
Model O 48.7% | U 51.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 28.1
Brady Singer headshot

Brady Singer
CIN vs MIL | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.30
Strongest Gap Under +4.29%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -10.39% / Under gap +4.29%
Under +4.29%
DraftKings
4.5
O +105 / U -135
Over gap -6.56% / Under gap +0.33%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -7.78% / Under gap +0.33%
No Play
Model O 42.2% | U 57.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.6
Brandon Pfaadt headshot

Brandon Pfaadt
AZ vs TEX | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.65
Strongest Gap Over +4.12%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap +4.12% / Under gap -11.41%
Over +4.12%
FanDuel
3.5
O -166 / U +130
Over gap +2.49% / Under gap -8.38%
Over +2.49%
DraftKings
4.5
O +108 / U -137
Over gap -0.01% / Under gap -5.88%
No Play
Model O 64.9% | U 35.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.6
Michael King headshot

Michael King
SD vs SF | 3 books
Play
Adj K 5.13
Strongest Gap Over +3.20%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap +3.20% / Under gap -10.13%
Over +3.20%
FanDuel
4.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -0.56% / Under gap -5.58%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -131 / U +101
Over gap -1.13% / Under gap -5.33%
No Play
Model O 55.6% | U 44.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 66.4
Bryan Woo headshot

Bryan Woo
SEA vs ATH | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.35
Strongest Gap Under +2.06%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -109 / U -119
Over gap -8.55% / Under gap +2.06%
Under +2.06%
FanDuel
5.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -6.90% / Under gap +0.84%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -5.18% / Under gap -1.93%
No Play
Model O 43.6% | U 56.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 72.9
Kumar Rocker headshot

Kumar Rocker
TEX vs AZ | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 3.83
Strongest Gap No Play +0.90%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -8.52% / Under gap +0.90%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -136 / U +105
Over gap -6.15% / Under gap -0.26%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -4.66% / Under gap -1.48%
No Play
Model O 51.5% | U 48.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 28.2
Paul Skenes headshot

Paul Skenes
PIT vs CHC | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.72
Strongest Gap No Play -1.39%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -5.54% / Under gap -1.39%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -4.04% / Under gap -2.06%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O -105 / U -122
Over gap -2.21% / Under gap -3.96%
No Play
Model O 49.0% | U 51.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 73.9

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.