Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-09-22 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-09-22

54 matched props 32 unmatched

Newer: 2026-09-23 Older: 2026-09-21

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 54

Grouped Pitchers 20

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 32

Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder

2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-24 2026-09-23 2026-09-21 2026-09-20 2026-09-19

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-09-22 | Raw sportsbook rows: 54 | Grouped pitcher entries: 20 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-09-22/strikeout_edges_2026-09-22.json

Max Scherzer

TOR vs BAL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.69

Strongest Gap Under +22.95%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -160 / U +120

Over gap -29.94% / Under gap +22.95%

Under +22.95%

DraftKings

4.5

O -135 / U +106

Over gap -25.85% / Under gap +19.86%

Under +19.86%

FanDuel

4.5

O -130 / U +102

Over gap -24.92% / Under gap +18.90%

Under +18.90%

Model O 31.6% | U 68.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.8

MacKenzie Gore

TEX vs NYM | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.97

Strongest Gap Over +19.75%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +112 / U -143

Over gap +19.75% / Under gap -25.77%

Over +19.75%

FanDuel

4.5

O +110 / U -140

Over gap +19.30% / Under gap -25.25%

Over +19.30%

BetMGM

4.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap +19.30% / Under gap -26.92%

Over +19.30%

Model O 66.9% | U 33.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.7

Cristian Javier

HOU vs SEA | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.40

Strongest Gap Under +18.92%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -110 / U -120

Over gap -25.85% / Under gap +18.92%

Under +18.92%

DraftKings

4.5

O +102 / U -130

Over gap -22.97% / Under gap +16.95%

Under +16.95%

FanDuel

4.5

O +108 / U -138

Over gap -21.55% / Under gap +15.49%

Under +15.49%

Model O 26.5% | U 73.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.3

Kyle Freeland

COL vs AZ | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.74

Strongest Gap Over +16.71%

Best Line 2.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

2.5

O -110 / U -120

Over gap +16.71% / Under gap -23.64%

Over +16.71%

FanDuel

2.5

O -125 / U -102

Over gap +13.53% / Under gap -19.59%

Over +13.53%

DraftKings

2.5

O -131 / U +103

Over gap +12.38% / Under gap -18.35%

Over +12.38%

Model O 69.1% | U 30.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 19.2

Drew Rasmussen

TB vs NYY | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 4.24

Strongest Gap Under +15.91%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O +106 / U -135

Over gap -21.90% / Under gap +15.91%

Under +15.91%

FanDuel

5.5

O +116 / U -158

Over gap -19.66% / Under gap +12.12%

Under +12.12%

Model O 26.6% | U 73.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.4

Andre Pallante

STL vs PIT | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.23

Strongest Gap Under +15.04%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -156 / U +122

Over gap -21.03% / Under gap +15.04%

Under +15.04%

FanDuel

3.5

O -156 / U +122

Over gap -21.03% / Under gap +15.04%

Under +15.04%

BetMGM

3.5

O -145 / U +105

Over gap -19.27% / Under gap +11.31%

Under +11.31%

Model O 39.9% | U 60.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.4

Taj Bradley

MIN vs SF | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.18

Strongest Gap Under +14.59%

Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

6.5

O +100 / U -135

Over gap -22.04% / Under gap +14.59%

Under +14.59%

DraftKings

6.5

O +110 / U -140

Over gap -19.66% / Under gap +13.71%

Under +13.71%

FanDuel

6.5

O +126 / U -162

Over gap -16.29% / Under gap +10.21%

Under +10.21%

Model O 28.0% | U 72.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.3

Shota Imanaga

CHC vs MIA | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 5.30

Strongest Gap Under +10.64%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -147 / U +115

Over gap -16.66% / Under gap +10.64%

Under +10.64%

FanDuel

5.5

O -142 / U +112

Over gap -15.83% / Under gap +9.98%

Under +9.98%

Model O 42.9% | U 57.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.3

Michael King

SD vs LAD | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 5.05

Strongest Gap Over +10.51%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +128 / U -164

Over gap +10.51% / Under gap -16.49%

Over +10.51%

DraftKings

4.5

O +115 / U -147

Over gap +7.86% / Under gap -13.88%

Over +7.86%

Model O 54.4% | U 45.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.3

Dustin May

MIL vs PHI | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.21

Strongest Gap Over +7.34%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -103 / U -123

Over gap +7.34% / Under gap -13.24%

Over +7.34%

FanDuel

3.5

O -115 / U -111

Over gap +4.59% / Under gap -10.69%

Over +4.59%

BetMGM

3.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap +4.59% / Under gap -11.57%

Over +4.59%

Model O 58.1% | U 41.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.7

Carlos Rodón

NYY vs TB | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.85

Strongest Gap Over +6.77%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -142 / U +111

Over gap +6.77% / Under gap -12.84%

Over +6.77%

BetMGM

5.5

O +120 / U -160

Over gap +5.40% / Under gap -12.39%

Over +5.40%

FanDuel

4.5

O -158 / U +124

Over gap +4.21% / Under gap -10.09%

Over +4.21%

Model O 65.5% | U 34.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.7

Max Fried

NYY vs TB | 1 books

Strong

Adj K 5.64

Strongest Gap Over +5.12%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +134 / U -172

Over gap +5.12% / Under gap -11.10%

Over +5.12%

Model O 47.9% | U 52.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.0

Chris Bassitt

BAL vs TOR | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.25

Strongest Gap Over +4.61%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O -118 / U -110

Over gap +4.61% / Under gap -11.12%

Over +4.61%

FanDuel

3.5

O -125 / U -102

Over gap +3.18% / Under gap -9.24%

Over +3.18%

DraftKings

3.5

O -149 / U +117

Over gap -1.10% / Under gap -4.82%

No Play

Model O 58.7% | U 41.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.4

Zack Wheeler

PHI vs MIL | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 6.92

Strongest Gap No Play +0.89%

Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

6.5

O -102 / U -125

Over gap +0.89% / Under gap -6.95%

No Play

DraftKings

6.5

O -110 / U -116

Over gap -0.99% / Under gap -5.09%

No Play

BetMGM

6.5

O -120 / U -110

Over gap -3.16% / Under gap -3.77%

No Play

Model O 51.4% | U 48.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 79.2

Sean Manaea

NYM vs TEX | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 5.06

Strongest Gap No Play +0.19%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -119 / U -107

Over gap +0.19% / Under gap -6.22%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O -125 / U -102

Over gap -1.03% / Under gap -5.03%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -150 / U +110

Over gap -5.47% / Under gap -2.15%

No Play

Model O 54.5% | U 45.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.7

Yusei Kikuchi

LAA vs ATH | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 5.17

Strongest Gap No Play -0.07%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O +114 / U -145

Over gap -5.84% / Under gap -0.07%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap -6.73% / Under gap -0.89%

No Play

FanDuel

5.5

O +128 / U -164

Over gap -2.97% / Under gap -3.01%

No Play

Model O 40.9% | U 59.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.9

Nick Martinez

TB vs NYY | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 3.88

Strongest Gap No Play -0.92%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -135 / U +106

Over gap -5.07% / Under gap -0.92%

No Play

BetMGM

3.5

O -140 / U +105

Over gap -5.95% / Under gap -1.16%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O -132 / U +104

Over gap -4.52% / Under gap -1.40%

No Play

Model O 52.4% | U 47.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.2

Logan Gilbert

SEA vs HOU | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 6.39

Strongest Gap No Play -0.93%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O +120 / U -153

Over gap -0.93% / Under gap -4.99%

No Play

BetMGM

6.5

O +100 / U -135

Over gap -5.48% / Under gap -1.97%

No Play

FanDuel

5.5

O -162 / U +126

Over gap -3.74% / Under gap -2.34%

No Play

Model O 44.5% | U 55.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 70.0

Janson Junk

MIA vs CHC | 2 books

No Play

Adj K 3.26

Strongest Gap No Play -1.15%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O +140 / U -180

Over gap -1.15% / Under gap -4.81%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O +134 / U -172

Over gap -2.22% / Under gap -3.76%

No Play

Model O 40.5% | U 59.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 24.7

Michael Soroka

AZ vs COL | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.59

Strongest Gap No Play -2.65%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -4.13% / Under gap -2.65%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O +101 / U -129

Over gap -2.66% / Under gap -3.42%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O +100 / U -128

Over gap -2.91% / Under gap -3.23%

No Play

Model O 47.1% | U 52.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.6

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.