Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-09-19 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-09-19

65 matched props 18 unmatched

Newer: 2026-09-20 Older: 2026-09-18

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 65

Grouped Pitchers 23

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 18

Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder

2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-24 2026-09-23 2026-09-22 2026-09-21 2026-09-20

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-09-19 | Raw sportsbook rows: 65 | Grouped pitcher entries: 23 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-09-19/strikeout_edges_2026-09-19.json

Brayan Bello

BOS vs TB | 1 books

Strong

Adj K 3.90

Strongest Gap Over +27.23%

Best Line 2.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

2.5

O +126 / U -161

Over gap +27.23% / Under gap -33.17%

Over +27.23%

Model O 71.5% | U 28.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.4

Jose Quintana

COL vs SEA | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 3.36

Strongest Gap Over +20.18%

Best Line 2.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

2.5

O +135 / U -185

Over gap +20.18% / Under gap -27.64%

Over +20.18%

DraftKings

2.5

O +131 / U -168

Over gap +19.44% / Under gap -25.42%

Over +19.44%

Model O 62.7% | U 37.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 28.0

Sean Burke

CWS vs DET | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.23

Strongest Gap Under +17.96%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -24.74% / Under gap +17.96%

Under +17.96%

DraftKings

5.5

O +105 / U -134

Over gap -22.30% / Under gap +16.26%

Under +16.26%

FanDuel

5.5

O +116 / U -148

Over gap -19.82% / Under gap +13.84%

Under +13.84%

Model O 26.5% | U 73.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.7

Jackson Jobe

DET vs CWS | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.72

Strongest Gap Under +16.66%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap -23.44% / Under gap +16.66%

Under +16.66%

DraftKings

4.5

O -110 / U -116

Over gap -20.26% / Under gap +14.18%

Under +14.18%

FanDuel

4.5

O -102 / U -125

Over gap -18.38% / Under gap +12.32%

Under +12.32%

Model O 32.1% | U 67.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.0

Noah Cameron

KC vs PIT | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.34

Strongest Gap Under +13.52%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -20.63% / Under gap +13.52%

Under +13.52%

DraftKings

5.5

O +117 / U -150

Over gap -17.93% / Under gap +11.85%

Under +11.85%

FanDuel

5.5

O +132 / U -170

Over gap -14.95% / Under gap +8.89%

Under +8.89%

Model O 28.1% | U 71.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.2

Trevor Rogers

BAL vs MIL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.73

Strongest Gap Under +11.31%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -106 / U -120

Over gap -17.32% / Under gap +11.31%

Under +11.31%

FanDuel

5.5

O +100 / U -128

Over gap -15.86% / Under gap +9.72%

Under +9.72%

BetMGM

5.5

O +100 / U -135

Over gap -15.86% / Under gap +8.41%

Under +8.41%

Model O 34.1% | U 65.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.9

Michael McGreevy

STL vs WSH | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.30

Strongest Gap Under +11.06%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -140 / U +110

Over gap -17.01% / Under gap +11.06%

Under +11.06%

FanDuel

3.5

O -140 / U +110

Over gap -17.01% / Under gap +11.06%

Under +11.06%

BetMGM

3.5

O -120 / U -110

Over gap -13.23% / Under gap +6.30%

Under +6.30%

Model O 41.3% | U 58.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 29.8

Cam Schlittler

NYY vs AZ | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.45

Strongest Gap Under +10.28%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -160 / U +124

Over gap -16.46% / Under gap +10.28%

Under +10.28%

BetMGM

6.5

O +105 / U -145

Over gap -17.12% / Under gap +9.16%

Under +9.16%

DraftKings

6.5

O +123 / U -157

Over gap -13.18% / Under gap +7.25%

Under +7.25%

Model O 45.1% | U 54.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.8

Freddy Peralta

TB vs BOS | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.03

Strongest Gap Over +9.86%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O +130 / U -175

Over gap +9.86% / Under gap -16.98%

Over +9.86%

DraftKings

4.5

O -155 / U +121

Over gap +6.85% / Under gap -12.88%

Over +6.85%

FanDuel

4.5

O -156 / U +122

Over gap +6.69% / Under gap -12.68%

Over +6.69%

Model O 53.3% | U 46.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.7

Nick Lodolo

CIN vs CHC | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.23

Strongest Gap Over +8.97%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +108 / U -138

Over gap +8.97% / Under gap -15.03%

Over +8.97%

FanDuel

4.5

O +108 / U -138

Over gap +8.97% / Under gap -15.03%

Over +8.97%

BetMGM

4.5

O +100 / U -135

Over gap +7.05% / Under gap -14.50%

Over +7.05%

Model O 57.0% | U 43.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.8

Eury Pérez

MIA vs SD | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.58

Strongest Gap Under +8.33%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O +117 / U -149

Over gap -14.25% / Under gap +8.33%

Under +8.33%

BetMGM

5.5

O +120 / U -160

Over gap -13.62% / Under gap +6.63%

Under +6.63%

FanDuel

5.5

O +130 / U -166

Over gap -11.65% / Under gap +5.76%

Under +5.76%

Model O 31.8% | U 68.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.3

Tarik Skubal

LAD vs SF | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 6.80

Strongest Gap Under +5.63%

Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

7.5

O +104 / U -132

Over gap -11.55% / Under gap +5.63%

Under +5.63%

FanDuel

7.5

O +104 / U -132

Over gap -11.55% / Under gap +5.63%

Under +5.63%

Model O 37.5% | U 62.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 83.0

Tanner Bibee

CLE vs ATH | 3 books

Play

Adj K 5.41

Strongest Gap Over +4.67%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -122 / U -104

Over gap +4.67% / Under gap -10.60%

Over +4.67%

DraftKings

4.5

O -128 / U +100

Over gap +3.48% / Under gap -9.62%

Over +3.48%

BetMGM

4.5

O -135 / U +100

Over gap +2.17% / Under gap -9.62%

Over +2.17%

Model O 59.6% | U 40.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.5

Bryce Miller

SEA vs COL | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.59

Strongest Gap Under +4.13%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -140 / U +105

Over gap -11.24% / Under gap +4.13%

Under +4.13%

FanDuel

4.5

O -111 / U -115

Over gap -5.52% / Under gap -0.58%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -109 / U -117

Over gap -5.06% / Under gap -1.01%

No Play

Model O 47.1% | U 52.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 60.7

Casey Mize

SD vs MIA | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.93

Strongest Gap Over +3.99%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +106 / U -135

Over gap +3.99% / Under gap -9.98%

Over +3.99%

BetMGM

4.5

O +105 / U -145

Over gap +3.75% / Under gap -11.71%

Over +3.75%

FanDuel

4.5

O +100 / U -128

Over gap +2.53% / Under gap -8.67%

Over +2.53%

Model O 52.5% | U 47.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.4

Grant Holmes

ATL vs HOU | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 4.66

Strongest Gap Over +2.93%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -164 / U +128

Over gap +2.93% / Under gap -8.91%

Over +2.93%

BetMGM

4.5

O +120 / U -160

Over gap +2.79% / Under gap -9.78%

Over +2.79%

DraftKings

3.5

O -171 / U +134

Over gap +1.95% / Under gap -7.79%

Over +1.95%

Model O 65.0% | U 34.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.9

Jacob Lopez

ATH vs CLE | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 4.65

Strongest Gap Over +2.82%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +121 / U -155

Over gap +2.82% / Under gap -8.85%

Over +2.82%

FanDuel

4.5

O +112 / U -142

Over gap +0.90% / Under gap -6.75%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap +0.45% / Under gap -8.07%

No Play

Model O 48.1% | U 51.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.8

Matthew Boyd

CHC vs CIN | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.94

Strongest Gap No Play +0.80%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -155 / U +115

Over gap -8.09% / Under gap +0.80%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -146 / U +114

Over gap -6.66% / Under gap +0.58%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O -142 / U +112

Over gap -5.99% / Under gap +0.14%

No Play

Model O 52.7% | U 47.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.7

Brandon Pfaadt

AZ vs NYY | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.77

Strongest Gap No Play +0.51%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +102 / U -130

Over gap +0.51% / Under gap -6.53%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -102 / U -125

Over gap -0.49% / Under gap -5.57%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap -3.48% / Under gap -3.50%

No Play

Model O 50.0% | U 50.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.4

Joe Ryan

MIN vs LAA | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 6.24

Strongest Gap No Play +0.05%

Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

6.5

O +100 / U -135

Over gap -7.50% / Under gap +0.05%

No Play

DraftKings

6.5

O +114 / U -146

Over gap -4.23% / Under gap -1.85%

No Play

FanDuel

6.5

O +116 / U -148

Over gap -3.80% / Under gap -2.18%

No Play

Model O 42.5% | U 57.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 81.0

Cal Quantrill

TEX vs TOR | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 3.30

Strongest Gap No Play -0.17%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O +112 / U -143

Over gap -5.85% / Under gap -0.17%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O +114 / U -146

Over gap -5.41% / Under gap -0.67%

No Play

BetMGM

2.5

O -175 / U +130

Over gap -2.00% / Under gap -5.12%

No Play

Model O 41.3% | U 58.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 15.8

José Soriano

TOR vs TEX | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 5.49

Strongest Gap No Play -0.81%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -160 / U +120

Over gap -0.81% / Under gap -6.18%

No Play

DraftKings

5.5

O +114 / U -145

Over gap -1.06% / Under gap -4.85%

No Play

FanDuel

5.5

O +114 / U -146

Over gap -1.06% / Under gap -5.02%

No Play

Model O 60.7% | U 39.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.3

Hayden Wesneski

HOU vs ATL | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.44

Strongest Gap No Play -1.68%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +105 / U -133

Over gap -4.18% / Under gap -1.68%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O +100 / U -135

Over gap -5.40% / Under gap -2.05%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O +112 / U -142

Over gap -2.57% / Under gap -3.28%

No Play

Model O 44.6% | U 55.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.3

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.