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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-09-23 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-09-23
48 matched props 23 unmatched
Newer: 2026-09-24 Older: 2026-09-22

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 48
Grouped Pitchers 16
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 23
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-24 2026-09-22 2026-09-21 2026-09-20 2026-09-19

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-09-23 | Raw sportsbook rows: 48 | Grouped pitcher entries: 16 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-09-23/strikeout_edges_2026-09-23.json
Matthew Liberatore headshot

Matthew Liberatore
STL vs PIT | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.67
Strongest Gap Under +25.66%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -170 / U +132
Over gap -31.72% / Under gap +25.66%
Under +25.66%
BetMGM
5.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -28.15% / Under gap +20.86%
Under +20.86%
DraftKings
5.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap -25.89% / Under gap +19.81%
Under +19.81%
Model O 31.2% | U 68.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 28.7
Robbie Ray headshot

Robbie Ray
SD vs LAD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.26
Strongest Gap Over +15.25%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap +15.25% / Under gap -21.42%
Over +15.25%
BetMGM
3.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap +14.55% / Under gap -21.66%
Over +14.55%
DraftKings
3.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap +13.53% / Under gap -19.61%
Over +13.53%
Model O 72.9% | U 27.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.7
Max Scherzer headshot

Max Scherzer
TOR vs BAL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.73
Strongest Gap Under +14.21%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -21.19% / Under gap +14.21%
Under +14.21%
DraftKings
4.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -15.32% / Under gap +9.37%
Under +9.37%
FanDuel
4.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -15.32% / Under gap +9.37%
Under +9.37%
Model O 32.3% | U 67.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.8
Yoshinobu Yamamoto headshot

Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD vs SD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.88
Strongest Gap Under +7.46%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -13.39% / Under gap +7.46%
Under +7.46%
BetMGM
6.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -13.63% / Under gap +6.85%
Under +6.85%
DraftKings
6.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -12.41% / Under gap +6.27%
Under +6.27%
Model O 37.6% | U 62.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.3
Merrill Kelly headshot

Merrill Kelly
AZ vs COL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.52
Strongest Gap Over +6.08%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -132 / U +103
Over gap +6.08% / Under gap -12.24%
Over +6.08%
FanDuel
3.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap +5.00% / Under gap -11.06%
Over +5.00%
BetMGM
3.5
O -165 / U +125
Over gap +0.72% / Under gap -7.42%
No Play
Model O 63.0% | U 37.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.3
Sonny Gray headshot

Sonny Gray
BOS vs CLE | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.37
Strongest Gap Over +5.79%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -114 / U -112
Over gap +5.79% / Under gap -11.89%
Over +5.79%
FanDuel
4.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap +4.51% / Under gap -10.52%
Over +4.51%
BetMGM
4.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap +4.51% / Under gap -11.44%
Over +4.51%
Model O 59.1% | U 40.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.7
George Kirby headshot

George Kirby
SEA vs HOU | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.59
Strongest Gap Over +5.57%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap +5.57% / Under gap -11.59%
Over +5.57%
DraftKings
4.5
O -132 / U +103
Over gap +5.19% / Under gap -11.35%
Over +5.19%
BetMGM
4.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap +0.55% / Under gap -7.54%
No Play
Model O 62.1% | U 37.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 60.4
Jeffrey Springs headshot

Jeffrey Springs
ATH vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.79
Strongest Gap Under +5.23%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -160 / U +125
Over gap -11.21% / Under gap +5.23%
Under +5.23%
FanDuel
4.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap -10.30% / Under gap +4.22%
Under +4.22%
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -7.12% / Under gap -0.33%
No Play
Model O 50.3% | U 49.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.0
Chris Sale headshot

Chris Sale
ATL vs CIN | 3 books
Play
Adj K 6.95
Strongest Gap Under +4.75%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -166 / U +130
Over gap -10.64% / Under gap +4.75%
Under +4.75%
BetMGM
7.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -10.65% / Under gap +3.20%
Under +3.20%
DraftKings
7.5
O +115 / U -147
Over gap -7.16% / Under gap +1.14%
No Play
Model O 51.8% | U 48.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 85.3
Seth Lugo headshot

Seth Lugo
KC vs CWS | 3 books
Play
Adj K 5.05
Strongest Gap Over +4.62%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +101 / U -128
Over gap +4.62% / Under gap -10.51%
Over +4.62%
FanDuel
4.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap +3.39% / Under gap -9.32%
Over +3.39%
BetMGM
4.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -0.18% / Under gap -6.75%
No Play
Model O 54.4% | U 45.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.1
Chris Bassitt headshot

Chris Bassitt
BAL vs TOR | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.30
Strongest Gap Over +3.99%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap +3.99% / Under gap -10.77%
Over +3.99%
FanDuel
3.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap +3.03% / Under gap -9.05%
Over +3.03%
DraftKings
3.5
O -133 / U +104
Over gap +2.47% / Under gap -8.57%
Over +2.47%
Model O 59.6% | U 40.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.4
Kevin Gausman headshot

Kevin Gausman
CHC vs MIA | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.91
Strongest Gap Under +2.86%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -9.85% / Under gap +2.86%
Under +2.86%
DraftKings
5.5
O -142 / U +112
Over gap -6.99% / Under gap +1.14%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -5.94% / Under gap -0.23%
No Play
Model O 51.7% | U 48.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 60.4
Ryan Gusto headshot

Ryan Gusto
MIA vs CHC | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 4.37
Strongest Gap Over +2.16%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -141 / U +111
Over gap +2.16% / Under gap -8.06%
Over +2.16%
FanDuel
3.5
O -142 / U +112
Over gap +1.99% / Under gap -7.84%
Over +1.99%
BetMGM
4.5
O +125 / U -165
Over gap -1.02% / Under gap -5.68%
No Play
Model O 60.7% | U 39.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.0
Framber Valdez headshot

Framber Valdez
DET vs WSH | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.46
Strongest Gap No Play +0.32%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap +0.32% / Under gap -7.94%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap -1.94% / Under gap -3.91%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +103 / U -132
Over gap -4.03% / Under gap -2.13%
No Play
Model O 60.3% | U 39.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.4
Andrew Abbott headshot

Andrew Abbott
CIN vs ATL | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.02
Strongest Gap No Play -0.31%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -6.68% / Under gap -0.31%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -153 / U +119
Over gap -5.61% / Under gap -0.52%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -2.04% / Under gap -3.88%
No Play
Model O 54.9% | U 45.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.3
Aaron Nola headshot

Aaron Nola
PHI vs MIL | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.43
Strongest Gap No Play -0.35%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -6.43% / Under gap -0.35%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -5.21% / Under gap -0.93%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap -2.38% / Under gap -3.47%
No Play
Model O 44.8% | U 55.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.4

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.