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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-09-24 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-09-24
36 matched props 29 unmatched
Newer: 2026-09-25 Older: 2026-09-23

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 36
Grouped Pitchers 12
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 29
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-23 2026-09-22 2026-09-21 2026-09-20 2026-09-19

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-09-24 | Raw sportsbook rows: 36 | Grouped pitcher entries: 12 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-09-24/strikeout_edges_2026-09-24.json
Tyler Mahle headshot

Tyler Mahle
ATL vs CIN | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.59
Strongest Gap Under +19.47%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -25.64% / Under gap +19.47%
Under +19.47%
DraftKings
5.5
O -132 / U +103
Over gap -24.91% / Under gap +18.75%
Under +18.75%
BetMGM
5.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -25.46% / Under gap +18.01%
Under +18.01%
Model O 32.0% | U 68.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.6
Bryan Woo headshot

Bryan Woo
SEA vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.76
Strongest Gap Under +19.43%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -158 / U +124
Over gap -25.31% / Under gap +19.43%
Under +19.43%
BetMGM
6.5
O -145 / U +105
Over gap -23.25% / Under gap +15.29%
Under +15.29%
DraftKings
7.5
O +121 / U -155
Over gap -20.67% / Under gap +14.64%
Under +14.64%
Model O 35.9% | U 64.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 79.0
Tyler Glasnow headshot

Tyler Glasnow
LAD vs SD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.37
Strongest Gap Under +8.23%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap -14.21% / Under gap +8.23%
Under +8.23%
DraftKings
7.5
O +119 / U -152
Over gap -13.57% / Under gap +7.59%
Under +7.59%
BetMGM
6.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -14.08% / Under gap +6.97%
Under +6.97%
Model O 32.1% | U 67.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 72.9
Nick Pivetta headshot

Nick Pivetta
SD vs LAD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.39
Strongest Gap Over +6.96%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap +6.96% / Under gap -13.89%
Over +6.96%
FanDuel
4.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap +5.85% / Under gap -11.95%
Over +5.85%
DraftKings
4.5
O -119 / U -107
Over gap +5.00% / Under gap -11.03%
Over +5.00%
Model O 59.3% | U 40.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.0
Eduardo Rodriguez headshot

Eduardo Rodriguez
AZ vs COL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.61
Strongest Gap Under +6.07%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -13.36% / Under gap +6.07%
Under +6.07%
DraftKings
4.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap -10.91% / Under gap +4.96%
Under +4.96%
FanDuel
4.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -9.10% / Under gap +3.08%
Under +3.08%
Model O 47.4% | U 52.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.3
Ranger Suarez headshot

Ranger Suarez
BOS vs CLE | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.91
Strongest Gap Over +5.92%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap +5.92% / Under gap -11.90%
Over +5.92%
DraftKings
4.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap +4.14% / Under gap -10.20%
Over +4.14%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap +3.44% / Under gap -10.55%
Over +3.44%
Model O 52.2% | U 47.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.7
Brady Singer headshot

Brady Singer
CIN vs ATL | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.36
Strongest Gap Over +4.37%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap +4.37% / Under gap -10.51%
Over +4.37%
DraftKings
3.5
O -139 / U +109
Over gap +2.35% / Under gap -8.36%
Over +2.35%
BetMGM
3.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -0.27% / Under gap -7.02%
No Play
Model O 60.5% | U 39.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.2
Matthew Boyd headshot

Matthew Boyd
CHC vs MIA | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.98
Strongest Gap Over +3.31%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap +3.31% / Under gap -10.76%
Over +3.31%
FanDuel
4.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap -0.82% / Under gap -5.23%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap -1.24% / Under gap -4.77%
No Play
Model O 53.3% | U 46.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.4
Cam Schlittler headshot

Cam Schlittler
NYY vs TB | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.91
Strongest Gap Under +2.65%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap -8.73% / Under gap +2.65%
Under +2.65%
DraftKings
6.5
O +121 / U -154
Over gap -7.25% / Under gap +1.37%
No Play
BetMGM
6.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -8.51% / Under gap +1.22%
No Play
Model O 38.0% | U 62.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.8
Kumar Rocker headshot

Kumar Rocker
TEX vs NYM | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.26
Strongest Gap No Play +1.01%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -8.46% / Under gap +1.01%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +109 / U -139
Over gap -6.31% / Under gap +0.30%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap -2.71% / Under gap -3.37%
No Play
Model O 41.5% | U 58.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.9
Tanner Gordon headshot

Tanner Gordon
COL vs AZ | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 3.66
Strongest Gap No Play -0.71%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -116 / U -110
Over gap -5.37% / Under gap -0.71%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -6.22% / Under gap -0.71%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -4.72% / Under gap -1.38%
No Play
Model O 48.3% | U 51.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 22.2
Paul Skenes headshot

Paul Skenes
PIT vs STL | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 6.11
Strongest Gap No Play -0.73%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -5.25% / Under gap -0.73%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -5.57% / Under gap -2.05%
No Play
DraftKings
6.5
O +129 / U -164
Over gap -2.93% / Under gap -2.86%
No Play
Model O 54.4% | U 45.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 80.6

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.