Mithrandir Metrics
SD National League West Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Club dossier / National League / National League West

San Diego Padres

83.6-78.4 with P10-P90 wins 74-93. 81.0 avg opponent projected wins.

Projected W
83.6-78.4
Live pace
81.0
Delta
-2.6
Record 48-48 Run diff -43 Generated 2026-07-17T11:44:53.145921+00:00
Rolling projection

Preseason / pace / Bayesian update

Preseason84.0
Current pace81.0
Rolling p5082.2
Observed weight62%
Rolling wins
72.2 76.9 82.2 87.4 92.1
MOVE -1.8 wins PACE behind BULLPEN FIP 4.28
October path

Projection odds

Division15.0%
Playoffs44.1%
Pennant5.7%
World Series2.7%
Run environment

Team talent

wOBA0.275
Rotation FIP4.34
Bullpen FIP4.28
Run diff25.4
Depth chart

Projected lineup

SlotPlayerPAValue
CFermin, Freddy428-0.81
1BSheets, Gavin5380.48
2BCronenworth, Jake5401.54
SSBogaerts, Xander542-0.33
3BMachado, Manny6215.19
CFMerrill, Jackson5198.45
RFTatis Jr.., Fernando6089.36
DHRengifo, Luis514-0.34