Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Matsui, Yuki

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.5% K%
Range
19.0% to 32.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
69
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
67
Arsenal4 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.02
ERA current pace1.92
ERA rolling p502.93
Observed weight52%
ERA
1.49 2.17 2.93 3.68 4.36
FIP
3.19 3.65 4.16 4.66 5.12
K%
21.8% 23.5% 25.5% 27.5% 29.2%
BB%
9.5% 10.7% 12.1% 13.4% 14.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.17
77
ERA1.92
97
BB%13.7%
7 -21 vs proj
K%25.6%
74
xwOBA allowed0.271
89 +41 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.2%
54
Fastball velo91.9
14
Hard-hit allowed30.7%
94
Whiff%29.9%
93
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+104
61
Mithrandir Stuff+100
33
Sinker Stuff+85
2
Slider Stuff+103
61
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Matsui, Yuki · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.271 2026-09-12: 0.2742026-09-13: 0.2742026-09-14: 0.2702026-09-18: 0.2682026-09-19: 0.2682026-09-20: 0.2682026-09-21: 0.2692026-09-22: 0.2692026-09-23: 0.2692026-09-24: 0.2712026-09-25: 0.2712026-09-26: 0.271 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Matsui, Yuki · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 42%42%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 31%31% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Matsui, Yuki · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 38.1%Slider: 30.2%Split-Finger: 26.0%Sinker: 2.9%Sweeper: 2.9% FF38% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 38%SL 30%FS 26%SI 3%ST 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Matsui, Yuki · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 38% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 92.0 mphFF92 mphSlider: 30% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.9 mphSL85 mphSplit-Finger: 26% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 83.5 mphFS83 mphSinker: 3% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 90.9 mphSI91 mphSweeper: 3% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 81.1 mphST81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 52.2% 224 104 qualified
SL 43.8% 188 103 limited sample
SI 4.0% 17 85 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 39%, Split-Finger 32%, Slider 16%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.11
K% Δ+0.020
Sample62.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.8----
Batters Faced164----
K%23.5%19.0% to 32.7%+/- 6.8%
BB%10.7%6.7% to 15.6%+/- 4.5%
Whiff%27.2%21.9% to 34.3%+/- 6.2%
HR/91.230.59 to 2.22+/- 0.81
xwOBA Against0.3140.247 to 0.363+/- 0.058
Barrel% Allowed7.8%3.6% to 11.8%+/- 4.1%
ERA4.032.23 to 6.29+/- 2.03
FIP4.182.50 to 5.22+/- 1.36
WHIP1.3320.986 to 1.682+/- 0.348
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

221 career BF

xwOBA0.270
K%24.4%
BB%10.3%
Barrel7.7%
vs RHH

331 career BF

xwOBA0.282
K%22.0%
BB%11.1%
Barrel7.5%