Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Estrada, Jeremiah

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
31.9% K%
Range
27.1% to 42.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 28 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
66
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
69
Arsenal3 metrics
50
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.84
ERA current pace3.48
ERA rolling p503.74
Observed weight28%
ERA
1.91 2.78 3.74 4.70 5.56
FIP
2.40 2.85 3.35 3.84 4.29
K%
27.7% 30.5% 33.7% 36.8% 39.7%
BB%
6.8% 8.3% 10.1% 11.9% 13.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.07
85
ERA3.48
64
BB%11.8%
18 -17 vs proj
K%31.2%
96
xwOBA allowed0.294
69
Barrel allowed7.5%
53 +22 vs proj
Fastball velo95.8
72
Hard-hit allowed35.8%
69
Whiff%32.0%
95
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+107
84
Mithrandir Stuff+103
60
Slider Stuff+92
4
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 56%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Estrada, Jeremiah · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.294 2026-07-05: 0.2952026-07-06: 0.2952026-07-07: 0.2952026-07-08: 0.2942026-07-09: 0.2942026-07-10: 0.2942026-07-11: 0.2942026-07-12: 0.2942026-07-13: 0.2942026-07-14: 0.2942026-07-15: 0.2942026-07-16: 0.294 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Estrada, Jeremiah · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 31%31%Zone: 41%41%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Estrada, Jeremiah · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 55.8%Split-Finger: 32.7%Slider: 11.5% FF56% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 56%FS 33%SL 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Estrada, Jeremiah · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 56% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 10″ drop, 95.8 mphFF96 mphSplit-Finger: 33% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 82.1 mphFS82 mphSlider: 12% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.1 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 85.1% 165 107 limited sample
SL 14.9% 29 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 56%, Split-Finger 24%, Slider 20%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.23
K% Δ-0.007
Sample23.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.8----
Batters Faced168----
K%31.9%27.1% to 42.9%+/- 7.9%
BB%9.8%5.3% to 14.0%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%30.8%26.6% to 38.5%+/- 6.0%
HR/91.180.63 to 2.23+/- 0.80
xwOBA Against0.2790.214 to 0.350+/- 0.068
Barrel% Allowed9.0%4.8% to 12.8%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.251.35 to 6.07+/- 2.36
FIP3.251.99 to 4.44+/- 1.23
WHIP1.1290.921 to 1.615+/- 0.347
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

277 career BF

xwOBA0.262
K%31.0%
BB%11.1%
Barrel7.9%
vs RHH

405 career BF

xwOBA0.259
K%33.3%
BB%7.9%
Barrel8.7%