Estrada, Jeremiah
High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.84 |
| ERA current pace | 3.00 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.61 |
| Observed weight | 27% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 85.1% | 165 | 107 | limited sample |
| SL | 14.9% | 29 | 91 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.25 |
| K% Δ | -0.004 |
| Sample | 22.3 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 40.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 171 | -- | -- |
| K% | 31.9% | 27.1% to 42.9% | +/- 7.9% |
| BB% | 9.8% | 5.3% to 14.0% | +/- 4.3% |
| Whiff% | 30.8% | 26.6% to 38.5% | +/- 6.0% |
| HR/9 | 1.18 | 0.63 to 2.23 | +/- 0.80 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.279 | 0.214 to 0.350 | +/- 0.068 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 9.0% | 4.8% to 12.8% | +/- 4.0% |
| ERA | 3.25 | 1.35 to 6.07 | +/- 2.36 |
| FIP | 3.25 | 1.99 to 4.46 | +/- 1.23 |
| WHIP | 1.129 | 0.921 to 1.615 | +/- 0.347 |
277 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.262 |
| K% | 31.0% |
| BB% | 11.1% |
| Barrel | 7.9% |
405 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.259 |
| K% | 33.3% |
| BB% | 7.9% |
| Barrel | 8.7% |