Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Estrada, Jeremiah

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
31.9% K%
Range
27.1% to 42.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 28 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
69
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
72
Arsenal3 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.84
ERA current pace3.48
ERA rolling p503.71
Observed weight36%
ERA
1.97 2.80 3.71 4.62 5.44
FIP
2.30 2.73 3.20 3.67 4.10
K%
28.3% 30.9% 33.7% 36.6% 39.1%
BB%
7.5% 8.9% 10.5% 12.1% 13.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
81
ERA3.48
70
BB%12.4%
15 -25 vs proj
K%32.1%
97
xwOBA allowed0.286
80
Barrel allowed6.6%
65 +39 vs proj
Fastball velo95.9
74
Hard-hit allowed35.5%
73
Whiff%30.2%
93
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+107
83
Mithrandir Stuff+103
59
Slider Stuff+95
10
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 57%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Estrada, Jeremiah · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.286 2026-09-13: 0.2862026-09-14: 0.2862026-09-18: 0.2862026-09-19: 0.2862026-09-20: 0.2862026-09-21: 0.2862026-09-22: 0.2862026-09-23: 0.2862026-09-24: 0.2862026-09-25: 0.2862026-09-26: 0.2862026-09-27: 0.286 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Estrada, Jeremiah · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 41%41%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Estrada, Jeremiah · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 57.0%Split-Finger: 32.5%Slider: 10.5% FF57% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 57%FS 33%SL 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Estrada, Jeremiah · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 57% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 95.9 mphFF96 mphSplit-Finger: 33% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 82.0 mphFS82 mphSlider: 10% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.0 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 85.5% 224 107 qualified
SL 14.5% 38 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 56%, Split-Finger 24%, Slider 20%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.23
K% Δ+0.003
Sample33.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.5----
Batters Faced167----
K%31.9%27.1% to 42.9%+/- 7.9%
BB%9.8%5.3% to 14.0%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%30.8%26.6% to 38.5%+/- 6.0%
HR/91.180.63 to 2.23+/- 0.80
xwOBA Against0.2790.213 to 0.350+/- 0.068
Barrel% Allowed9.0%4.8% to 12.8%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.251.34 to 6.07+/- 2.37
FIP3.251.99 to 4.44+/- 1.23
WHIP1.1290.921 to 1.615+/- 0.347
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

277 career BF

xwOBA0.262
K%31.0%
BB%11.1%
Barrel7.9%
vs RHH

405 career BF

xwOBA0.259
K%33.3%
BB%7.9%
Barrel8.7%