Morgan, David
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.81 |
| ERA current pace | 6.08 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.39 |
| Observed weight | 25% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 33.9% | 85 | 98 | limited sample |
| CB | 31.5% | 79 | 100 | limited sample |
| FB | 26.7% | 67 | 108 | limited sample |
| SL | 8.0% | 20 | 93 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 66.2 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 277 | -- | -- |
| K% | 23.5% | 20.5% to 32.6% | +/- 6.0% |
| BB% | 9.9% | 7.4% to 13.9% | +/- 3.3% |
| Whiff% | 23.2% | 20.4% to 29.4% | +/- 4.5% |
| HR/9 | 1.27 | 0.60 to 1.72 | +/- 0.56 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.316 | 0.268 to 0.348 | +/- 0.040 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.0% | 5.6% to 11.3% | +/- 2.9% |
| ERA | 4.32 | 1.89 to 5.00 | +/- 1.55 |
| FIP | 3.98 | 3.02 to 5.06 | +/- 1.02 |
| WHIP | 1.381 | 1.040 to 1.623 | +/- 0.292 |
78 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.284 |
| K% | 19.9% |
| BB% | 12.6% |
| Barrel | 7.4% |
121 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.254 |
| K% | 23.5% |
| BB% | 8.2% |
| Barrel | 7.5% |