Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Morgan, David

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
23.5% K%
Range
20.5% to 32.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
35
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
58
Arsenal5 metrics
50
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.81
ERA current pace4.25
ERA rolling p503.99
Observed weight42%
ERA
2.88 3.41 3.99 4.58 5.11
FIP
3.30 3.64 4.03 4.41 4.76
K%
20.5% 22.3% 24.4% 26.5% 28.3%
BB%
8.9% 10.0% 11.2% 12.5% 13.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.71
6
ERA4.25
45
BB%12.9%
13 -27 vs proj
K%22.2%
50
xwOBA allowed0.304
63 +16 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.8%
95 +54 vs proj
Fastball velo97.4
91
Hard-hit allowed34.6%
78
Whiff%26.7%
80 +25 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Curveball Stuff+100
18
Fastball Stuff+106
79
Mithrandir Stuff+103
55
Sinker Stuff+101
39
Slider Stuff+103
58
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Morgan, David · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.304 2026-09-12: 0.2882026-09-13: 0.2882026-09-14: 0.2912026-09-18: 0.2942026-09-19: 0.3042026-09-20: 0.3042026-09-21: 0.3012026-09-22: 0.3012026-09-23: 0.3012026-09-24: 0.3022026-09-25: 0.3022026-09-26: 0.304 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Morgan, David · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morgan, David · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 31.5%Sinker: 28.0%Curveball: 23.0%Slider: 17.5% FF32% · 98 mphprimary pitch FF 32%SI 28%CU 23%SL 18% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morgan, David · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 97.8 mphFF98 mphSinker: 28% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 96.9 mphSI97 mphCurveball: 23% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 82.6 mphCU83 mphSlider: 18% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 87.9 mphSL88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 30.3% 128 106 limited sample
SI 29.6% 125 101 limited sample
CB 25.3% 107 100 limited sample
SL 14.9% 63 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.284 vs 0.254 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 37%, Curveball 23%, Sinker 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.08
K% Δ-0.013
Sample35.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings66.9----
Batters Faced280----
K%23.5%20.5% to 32.6%+/- 6.0%
BB%9.9%7.4% to 13.9%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%23.2%20.4% to 29.4%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.270.60 to 1.72+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.3160.268 to 0.348+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.6% to 11.3%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.331.89 to 5.00+/- 1.55
FIP3.983.02 to 5.06+/- 1.02
WHIP1.3811.034 to 1.619+/- 0.293
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

78 career BF

xwOBA0.284
K%19.9%
BB%12.6%
Barrel7.4%
vs RHH

121 career BF

xwOBA0.254
K%23.5%
BB%8.2%
Barrel7.5%