Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Morgan, David

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
23.5% K%
Range
20.5% to 32.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 27 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
38
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
61
Arsenal5 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.81
ERA current pace4.50
ERA rolling p504.04
Observed weight33%
ERA
2.88 3.43 4.04 4.65 5.20
FIP
3.36 3.72 4.12 4.52 4.88
K%
20.5% 22.6% 24.9% 27.2% 29.2%
BB%
8.1% 9.3% 10.6% 11.9% 13.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.70
6
ERA4.50
37
BB%11.8%
18 -15 vs proj
K%22.7%
51
xwOBA allowed0.284
78 +30 vs proj
Barrel allowed2.7%
97 +53 vs proj
Fastball velo97.1
88
Hard-hit allowed31.5%
92
Whiff%27.9%
83 +31 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Curveball Stuff+100
18
Fastball Stuff+108
89
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Sinker Stuff+99
28
Slider Stuff+103
58
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Morgan, David · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.284 2026-07-06: 0.2842026-07-07: 0.2842026-07-08: 0.2842026-07-09: 0.2842026-07-10: 0.2842026-07-11: 0.2842026-07-12: 0.2842026-07-13: 0.2842026-07-14: 0.2842026-07-15: 0.2842026-07-16: 0.2842026-07-17: 0.284 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Morgan, David · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 32%32% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morgan, David · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 29.0%4-Seam Fastball: 28.3%Curveball: 25.6%Slider: 17.2% SI29% · 97 mphprimary pitch SI 29%FF 28%CU 26%SL 17% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Morgan, David · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 29% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 96.7 mphSI97 mph4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 97.5 mphFF98 mphCurveball: 26% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 82.7 mphCU83 mphSlider: 17% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 87.5 mphSL87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 31.2% 94 99 limited sample
CB 28.2% 85 100 limited sample
FB 25.9% 78 108 limited sample
SL 14.6% 44 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.284 vs 0.254 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 37%, Curveball 23%, Sinker 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.17
K% Δ-0.008
Sample25.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.8----
Batters Faced276----
K%23.5%20.5% to 32.6%+/- 6.0%
BB%9.9%7.4% to 13.9%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%23.2%20.4% to 29.4%+/- 4.5%
HR/91.270.60 to 1.72+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.3160.268 to 0.348+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.6% to 11.3%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.331.89 to 5.00+/- 1.55
FIP3.983.02 to 5.06+/- 1.02
WHIP1.3801.034 to 1.619+/- 0.293
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

78 career BF

xwOBA0.284
K%19.9%
BB%12.6%
Barrel7.4%
vs RHH

121 career BF

xwOBA0.254
K%23.5%
BB%8.2%
Barrel7.5%