Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Peralta, Wandy

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.9% K%
Range
14.6% to 26.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
47
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal5 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.89
ERA current pace3.61
ERA rolling p503.73
Observed weight58%
ERA
2.39 3.02 3.73 4.43 5.07
FIP
3.05 3.51 4.01 4.52 4.98
K%
14.8% 16.1% 17.6% 19.1% 20.4%
BB%
6.2% 7.0% 8.0% 8.9% 9.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
47
ERA3.61
67
BB%7.6%
69 +23 vs proj
K%16.0%
11 -18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.319
42
Barrel allowed4.4%
91 +55 vs proj
Fastball velo96.1
76
Hard-hit allowed35.5%
74
Whiff%21.0%
35 -26 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+107
82
Mithrandir Stuff+102
47
Sinker Stuff+102
47
Fastball Stuff+94
8
Slider Stuff+95
12
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Peralta, Wandy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.319 2026-09-13: 0.3102026-09-14: 0.3092026-09-18: 0.3152026-09-19: 0.3152026-09-20: 0.3152026-09-21: 0.3152026-09-22: 0.3152026-09-23: 0.3162026-09-24: 0.3162026-09-25: 0.3162026-09-26: 0.3192026-09-27: 0.319 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Peralta, Wandy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 12%12%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peralta, Wandy · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 42.1%Changeup: 34.3%Slider: 14.5%4-Seam Fastball: 9.1% SI42% · 96 mphprimary pitch SI 42%CH 34%SL 15%FF 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Peralta, Wandy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Sinker: 42% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 96.0 mphSI96 mphChangeup: 34% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 89.5 mphCH90 mphSlider: 15% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.3 mphSL89 mph4-Seam Fastball: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 96.4 mphFF96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 41.2% 330 102 qualified
CH 33.9% 271 107 qualified
SL 14.8% 118 95 limited sample
FB 10.1% 81 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.294 vs 0.318 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 45%, Changeup 35%, Slider 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.42
K% Δ-0.029
Sample77.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.0----
Batters Faced291----
K%18.9%14.6% to 26.0%+/- 5.7%
BB%9.3%6.6% to 13.1%+/- 3.2%
Whiff%24.3%20.6% to 29.3%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.170.61 to 1.89+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3100.274 to 0.360+/- 0.043
Barrel% Allowed8.3%5.4% to 11.3%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.031.96 to 5.70+/- 1.87
FIP4.273.09 to 5.78+/- 1.34
WHIP1.3741.079 to 1.693+/- 0.307
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

851 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%18.5%
BB%9.0%
Barrel7.0%
vs RHH

1239 career BF

xwOBA0.318
K%16.7%
BB%10.0%
Barrel8.5%