Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.294 vs 0.318 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 45%, Changeup 35%, Slider 17%.
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026
Peralta, Wandy
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team SD
Archetype Offspeed mix artist
Age 35
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.89 |
| ERA current pace | 2.13 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.30 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
ERA
1.91
2.57
3.30
4.03
4.69
FIP
3.26
3.73
4.26
4.79
5.26
K%
15.2%
17.1%
19.2%
21.4%
23.3%
BB%
7.3%
8.5%
9.8%
11.1%
12.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%12.4%
14
-27 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.7%
92
+49 vs proj
Fastball velo95.8
74
Hard-hit allowed31.7%
87
K%18.2%
21
Whiff%23.8%
58
xwOBA allowed0.318
46
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+98
21
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
39%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 38.4% | 164 | 98 | limited sample |
| CH | 35.6% | 152 | 107 | limited sample |
| SL | 16.4% | 70 | 90 | limited sample |
| FB | 9.6% | 41 | 86 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.90 |
| K% Δ | -0.007 |
| Sample | 27.7 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 66.1 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 287 | -- | -- |
| K% | 18.9% | 14.6% to 26.0% | +/- 5.7% |
| BB% | 9.3% | 6.6% to 13.1% | +/- 3.2% |
| Whiff% | 24.3% | 20.6% to 29.3% | +/- 4.3% |
| HR/9 | 1.17 | 0.61 to 1.89 | +/- 0.64 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.310 | 0.274 to 0.360 | +/- 0.043 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.3% | 5.4% to 11.3% | +/- 2.9% |
| ERA | 4.03 | 1.96 to 5.70 | +/- 1.87 |
| FIP | 4.27 | 3.09 to 5.78 | +/- 1.34 |
| WHIP | 1.375 | 1.079 to 1.693 | +/- 0.307 |
vs LHH
851 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.294 |
| K% | 18.5% |
| BB% | 9.0% |
| Barrel | 7.0% |
vs RHH
1239 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.318 |
| K% | 16.7% |
| BB% | 10.0% |
| Barrel | 8.5% |