Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

Weiss, Ryan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
19.0% K%
Range
3.2% to 24.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 30 Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason2.76
ERA current pace7.62
ERA rolling p504.54
Observed weight37%
ERA
2.79 3.62 4.54 5.47 6.29
FIP
3.01 3.97 5.05 6.13 7.10
K%
13.1% 16.4% 20.1% 23.7% 27.0%
BB%
8.2% 9.8% 11.6% 13.4% 15.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%17.3%
1 -28 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.6%
20 -33 vs proj
Fastball velo94.7
58
Hard-hit allowed49.4%
4
K%21.6%
46 +21 vs proj
Whiff%21.9%
41
xwOBA allowed0.380
6 -73 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+100
31
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Weiss, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3802026-05-19: 0.3802026-05-21: 0.3802026-05-23: 0.3802026-05-24: 0.3802026-05-25: 0.3802026-05-26: 0.3802026-05-28: 0.3802026-05-29: 0.3802026-05-30: 0.3802026-05-31: 0.3802026-06-01: 0.380 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Weiss, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 40%40%Hard hit allowed: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Weiss, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 38.3%Sweeper: 31.8%Changeup: 14.9%Sinker: 11.5%Curveball: 3.5% MIX FF 38%ST 32%CH 15%SI 12%CU 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Weiss, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.1FFST: HB 0.1, IVB 3.3STCH: HB -0.8, IVB 2.8CHSI: HB 0.3, IVB 1.8SICU: HB 0.5, IVB 4.4CU horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 36.9% 195 104 limited sample
SL 32.4% 171 103 limited sample
CH 14.8% 78 96 limited sample
SI 12.5% 66 88 limited sample
CB 3.4% 18 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+3.46
K% Δ+0.026
Sample26.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.4----
Batters Faced142----
K%19.0%3.2% to 24.5%+/- 10.7%
BB%10.3%0.3% to 10.2%+/- 4.9%
Whiff%22.8%6.7% to 31.2%+/- 12.2%
HR/91.390.00 to 1.66+/- 0.83
xwOBA Against0.2820.001 to 0.312+/- 0.155
Barrel% Allowed7.5%0.1% to 9.4%+/- 4.7%
ERA4.160.00 to 4.78+/- 2.39
FIP4.090.47 to 6.06+/- 2.80
WHIP1.2900.125 to 1.429+/- 0.652
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

7 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%5.0%
BB%3.2%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

14 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%5.3%
BB%2.4%
Barrel0.1%