Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Vásquez, Randy

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.3% K%
Range
13.1% to 20.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
29
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
25
Arsenal7 metrics
66
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.50
ERA current pace4.71
ERA rolling p504.63
Observed weight63%
ERA
3.32 3.94 4.63 5.32 5.94
FIP
3.97 4.39 4.85 5.32 5.74
K%
14.5% 15.5% 16.6% 17.7% 18.6%
BB%
5.6% 6.3% 7.0% 7.7% 8.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.49
20
ERA4.71
32
BB%6.6%
81 +24 vs proj
K%16.6%
12
xwOBA allowed0.397
1
Barrel allowed12.9%
4 -30 vs proj
Fastball velo95.0
58
Hard-hit allowed47.9%
5
Whiff%17.9%
11
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Cutter Stuff+104
71
Fastball Stuff+104
67
Mithrandir Stuff+105
76
Changeup Stuff+100
31
Curveball Stuff+105
88
Sinker Stuff+105
70
Slider Stuff+104
62
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Vásquez, Randy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.397 2026-07-06: 0.3982026-07-07: 0.3982026-07-08: 0.3982026-07-09: 0.3982026-07-10: 0.3982026-07-11: 0.3982026-07-12: 0.3982026-07-13: 0.3982026-07-14: 0.3982026-07-15: 0.3982026-07-16: 0.3972026-07-17: 0.397 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Vásquez, Randy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 48%48% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Vásquez, Randy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.9%Cutter: 23.2%Sinker: 12.4%Curveball: 12.0%Changeup: 8.2%Sweeper: 6.0% FF33% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 33%FC 23%SI 12%CU 12%CH 8%ST 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Vásquez, Randy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.0 mphFF95 mphCutter: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 90.4 mphFC90 mphSinker: 12% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 94.9 mphSI95 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 83.9 mphCU84 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 18″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.3 mphCH88 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.2 mphST84 mphSlider: 5% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.0 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 31.1% 327 104 qualified
FC 24.1% 253 104 qualified
SI 13.4% 141 105 limited sample
CB 11.4% 120 105 limited sample
SL 11.0% 116 104 limited sample
CH 8.9% 93 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.348 vs 0.305 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 25%, 4-Seam Fastball 21%, Sinker 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.37
K% Δ+0.003
Sample91.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings71.6----
Batters Faced315----
K%16.3%13.1% to 20.6%+/- 3.8%
BB%8.2%5.6% to 10.6%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%16.6%13.7% to 21.5%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.550.72 to 1.91+/- 0.59
xwOBA Against0.3630.292 to 0.388+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed8.8%6.4% to 12.4%+/- 3.0%
ERA5.072.50 to 6.08+/- 1.79
FIP4.893.26 to 5.68+/- 1.21
WHIP1.4251.119 to 1.649+/- 0.265
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

577 career BF

xwOBA0.348
K%12.4%
BB%9.3%
Barrel9.6%
vs RHH

637 career BF

xwOBA0.305
K%15.4%
BB%6.5%
Barrel8.6%