Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Vásquez, Randy

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.3% K%
Range
13.1% to 20.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
42
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
34
Arsenal7 metrics
75
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.50
ERA current pace4.07
ERA rolling p504.19
Observed weight72%
ERA
2.81 3.47 4.19 4.92 5.57
FIP
3.53 3.97 4.46 4.95 5.39
K%
14.0% 14.8% 15.7% 16.6% 17.4%
BB%
5.4% 5.9% 6.5% 7.1% 7.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.31
55
ERA4.07
50
BB%6.1%
88 +30 vs proj
K%15.3%
7
xwOBA allowed0.358
10
Barrel allowed10.0%
14 -15 vs proj
Fastball velo95.1
59
Hard-hit allowed44.3%
13
Whiff%16.8%
7
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Cutter Stuff+105
88
Fastball Stuff+105
76
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
Sinker Stuff+106
79
Changeup Stuff+100
37
Curveball Stuff+105
88
Slider Stuff+104
73
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Vásquez, Randy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.358 2026-09-12: 0.3582026-09-13: 0.3582026-09-14: 0.3572026-09-18: 0.3592026-09-19: 0.3592026-09-20: 0.3592026-09-21: 0.3582026-09-22: 0.3582026-09-23: 0.3582026-09-24: 0.3582026-09-25: 0.3582026-09-26: 0.358 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Vásquez, Randy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 100%100%Chase: ----Whiff: 0%0%Zone contact: 100%100%Contact: 100%100%Hard hit: 0%0% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Vásquez, Randy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 31.7%Cutter: 24.0%Sinker: 16.6%Changeup: 8.6%Curveball: 8.6%Slider: 5.7% FF32% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 32%FC 24%SI 17%CH 9%CU 9%SL 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Vásquez, Randy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.1 mphFF95 mphCutter: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.9 mphFC91 mphSinker: 17% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 95.1 mphSI95 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 88.6 mphCH89 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 84.0 mphCU84 mphSlider: 6% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.0 mphSL86 mphSweeper: 5% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.2 mphST84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 30.0% 445 105 qualified
FC 23.8% 352 105 qualified
SI 18.2% 269 106 qualified
SL 10.3% 153 104 limited sample
CH 9.4% 140 100 limited sample
CB 8.3% 123 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.348 vs 0.305 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 25%, 4-Seam Fastball 21%, Sinker 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.01
K% Δ-0.009
Sample141.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings72.7----
Batters Faced320----
K%16.3%13.1% to 20.6%+/- 3.8%
BB%8.2%5.6% to 10.6%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%16.6%13.7% to 21.5%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.550.72 to 1.91+/- 0.59
xwOBA Against0.3630.292 to 0.388+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed8.8%6.4% to 12.4%+/- 3.0%
ERA5.082.50 to 6.08+/- 1.79
FIP4.893.26 to 5.68+/- 1.21
WHIP1.4251.119 to 1.649+/- 0.265
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

577 career BF

xwOBA0.348
K%12.4%
BB%9.3%
Barrel9.6%
vs RHH

637 career BF

xwOBA0.305
K%15.4%
BB%6.5%
Barrel8.6%