Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / SD · 2026
Fermin, Freddy
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team SD
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
8
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.291 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.263 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.278 |
| Observed weight | 45% |
xwOBA
0.253
0.265
0.278
0.292
0.304
wOBA
0.242
0.262
0.285
0.308
0.329
ISO
0.098
0.114
0.132
0.150
0.167
K%
15.5%
17.1%
18.9%
20.7%
22.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.7%
9
-21 vs proj
Exit velocity83.5
8
Hard-hit%25.2%
8
-21 vs proj
xBA0.248
4
xSLG0.364
5
xwOBA0.263
12
-23 vs proj
BB%10.2%
68
+49 vs proj
Bat speed66.2
13
K%19.2%
69
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.9 · C
88
Catcher Throwing1.7 · C
86
Framing Runs1.5 · C
68
Pop Time1.9 · C
83
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.1 · C
42
SB Success Rate0.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.4% · rebadged research
44
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5% · rebadged research
81
Correct Decisions67.8% · rebadged research
66
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
72
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
71
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283 · validated thin sample
41
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · insufficient sample
93
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339 · validated
50
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.314 · validated
99
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
62
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
97 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.030 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.008 |
| Sample | 177 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 428 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.293 | 0.257 to 0.319 | +/- 0.031 |
| ISO | 0.117 | 0.083 to 0.197 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 3.8% | 2.0% to 6.1% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.4% | 32.8% to 43.0% | +/- 5.1% |
| K% | 18.3% | 15.5% to 26.3% | +/- 5.4% |
| BB% | 5.8% | 4.0% to 8.8% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.277 | 0.235 to 0.324 | +/- 0.044 |
vs LHP
317 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.235 |
| K% | 14.4% |
| BB% | 4.9% |
| Barrel | 3.1% |
vs RHP
699 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.212 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 4.0% |
| Barrel | 2.8% |