Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / SD · 2026

Cronenworth, Jake

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.321 xwOBA
Range
0.295 to 0.366
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Balanced regular Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
19
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
29
Defense4 metrics
32
Speed3 metrics
36
Plate skills10 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
xwOBA preseason0.320
xwOBA current pace0.272
xwOBA rolling p500.288
Observed weight67%
xwOBA
0.267 0.277 0.288 0.300 0.310
wOBA
0.281 0.294 0.309 0.324 0.337
ISO
0.089 0.101 0.114 0.127 0.139
K%
19.7% 20.7% 21.8% 23.0% 24.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.5%
17 -24 vs proj
Exit velocity85.4
23
Hard-hit%30.0%
17 -34 vs proj
xBA0.287
18
xSLG0.413
17
xwOBA0.272
21 -48 vs proj
BB%8.9%
55
Bat speed68.4
34
K%22.3%
53
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
52
Arm Strength83.4 · 2B
19
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 2B
27
Range Runs-2.4 · 2B
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts1.0 · 2B
11
SB Success Rate71.4% · 2B
30
Sprint Speed28.0 · 2B
65
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-09-27
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.3% · rebadged research
54
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.4% · rebadged research
22
Correct Decisions64.4% · rebadged research
30
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
38
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.259 · borderline
94
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.292 · insufficient sample
20
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.234 · validated thin sample
100
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.301 · insufficient sample
92
Resists FastballwOBA 0.365 · validated
13
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348 · validated
73
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Cronenworth, Jake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.302 0.272 2026-09-13: 0.2692026-09-14: 0.2682026-09-18: 0.2712026-09-19: 0.2732026-09-20: 0.2732026-09-21: 0.2752026-09-22: 0.2752026-09-23: 0.2732026-09-24: 0.2732026-09-25: 0.2732026-09-26: 0.2702026-09-27: 0.272 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Jake Cronenworth's tools (75) and production (74) are aligned. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects. Also flagged: Launch Angle Too High.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High
-10.7° Current 31° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Contact-Discipline Mismatch
Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

194 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Cronenworth, Jake · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsPull 14%Center field third: 76% of plotted batted ballsCenter 76%Right field third: 10% of plotted batted ballsOppo 10% LF 334 CF 396 RF 322 2026-03-15 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 79.4 / LA -3.02026-03-15 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 88.6 / LA 13.02026-03-17 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 107.5 / LA 7.02026-03-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.0 / LA 56.02026-03-19 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 97.7 / LA 10.02026-03-19 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 100.3 / LA 13.02026-03-19 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 101.6 / LA 15.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.3 / LA -10.02026-03-22 · field out · CH · popup · EV 70.1 / LA 70.02026-03-23 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 105.2 / LA -21.02026-03-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 74.6 / LA 41.02026-03-26 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 81.1 / LA 12.02026-03-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 84.0 / LA -7.02026-03-26 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 80.5 / LA -39.02026-03-27 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.9 / LA -49.02026-03-27 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 106.3 / LA 4.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.3 / LA -12.02026-03-28 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 92.9 / LA 17.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 83.2 / LA 10.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.8 / LA 2.02026-03-31 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 71.3 / LA -23.02026-03-31 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 3.02026-03-31 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 72.9 / LA -12.02026-03-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.8 / LA -2.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.8 / LA 47.02026-04-01 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.6 / LA 7.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.4 / LA 45.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 99.3 / LA 20.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.1 / LA -44.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA -19.02026-04-04 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 86.2 / LA -15.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 103.2 / LA 9.02026-04-05 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 55.2 / LA -48.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 85.6 / LA 19.02026-04-05 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 79.8 / LA -8.02026-04-05 · field out · ST · popup · EV 70.9 / LA 49.02026-04-06 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 7.02026-04-06 · double · CU · fly_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 23.02026-04-07 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 35.3 / LA -31.02026-04-08 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.2 / LA 28.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 73.6 / LA 37.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.9 / LA 46.02026-04-09 · fielders choice out · FF · ground_ball · EV 37.9 / LA -32.02026-04-09 · field out · ST · popup · EV 95.4 / LA 61.02026-04-09 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.1 / LA -5.02026-04-09 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 102.0 / LA 18.02026-04-09 · field out · FC · popup · EV 75.2 / LA 56.02026-04-10 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 97.3 / LA 1.02026-04-10 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 88.9 / LA 20.02026-04-11 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 79.2 / LA -33.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 94.8 / LA 18.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.9 / LA 33.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 85.0 / LA 61.02026-04-14 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 78.9 / LA 11.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 82.8 / LA -18.02026-04-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.5 / LA 29.02026-04-16 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA -23.02026-04-16 · field error · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.1 / LA 7.02026-04-17 · force out · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.8 / LA -26.02026-04-17 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.7 / LA 28.02026-04-18 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.9 / LA 7.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 89.1 / LA -27.02026-04-21 · double · FF · ground_ball · EV 87.4 / LA 8.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.0 / LA 20.02026-04-22 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 83.8 / LA -3.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · popup · EV 69.7 / LA 77.02026-04-22 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 95.0 / LA -13.02026-04-23 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 73.0 / LA 23.02026-04-23 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.2 / LA -15.02026-04-23 · field out · SI · popup · EV 71.5 / LA 63.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.1 / LA -8.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.9 / LA -21.02026-04-26 · field out · SL · popup · EV 85.6 / LA 58.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.0 / LA -24.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 62.4 / LA 12.02026-04-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 63.9 / LA -60.02026-04-28 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 105.0 / LA 20.02026-04-28 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.2 / LA -26.02026-04-29 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 98.3 / LA 37.02026-05-02 · single · KC · line_drive · EV 103.1 / LA 10.02026-05-02 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 62.2 / LA -46.02026-05-03 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 94.5 / LA 40.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 55.7 / LA 31.02026-05-04 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 79.0 / LA -40.02026-05-04 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 79.6 / LA 45.02026-06-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 77.1 / LA 52.02026-07-01 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 98.1 / LA 14.02026-07-01 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 89.5 / LA 20.02026-07-01 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 87.1 / LA 1.02026-08-02 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 87.8 / LA -33.02026-08-02 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 88.5 / LA 24.02026-08-02 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA -1.02026-08-04 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 58.0 / LA 26.02026-08-04 · field out · FC · popup · EV 72.4 / LA 74.02026-08-04 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 99.2 / LA 13.02026-08-04 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 80.4 / LA -3.02026-08-04 · field out · FF · popup · EV 62.9 / LA 29.02026-08-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.8 / LA 27.02026-08-05 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 58.0 / LA 36.02026-08-05 · field out · SV · fly_ball · EV 75.4 / LA 54.02026-08-07 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 97.8 / LA 12.02026-08-07 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 51.5 / LA 3.02026-08-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 39.02026-08-08 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 95.5 / LA -10.02026-08-08 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 87.9 / LA 47.02026-08-08 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA -5.02026-08-11 · double · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.7 / LA 10.02026-08-11 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.2 / LA 5.02026-08-11 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 41.9 / LA -40.02026-08-14 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 90.3 / LA 22.02026-08-14 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 104.3 / LA 11.02026-08-14 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA -7.02026-08-14 · field out · CU · popup · EV 78.7 / LA 54.02026-08-15 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 77.2 / LA -19.02026-08-15 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 71.1 / LA 46.02026-08-15 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 80.4 / LA -28.02026-08-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.7 / LA 24.02026-08-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 49.02026-08-16 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 68.8 / LA -67.02026-08-16 · field out · FF · popup · EV 32.3 / LA 41.02026-08-16 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 100.3 / LA 35.02026-08-17 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA -3.02026-08-17 · single · SI · fly_ball · EV 74.4 / LA 28.02026-08-19 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 63.7 / LA -44.02026-08-22 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 88.9 / LA 15.02026-08-22 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 90.8 / LA 19.02026-08-23 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 88.2 / LA -15.02026-08-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 86.7 / LA -3.02026-08-23 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 74.2 / LA 50.02026-08-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.8 / LA -21.02026-08-24 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 94.4 / LA 13.02026-08-24 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 87.7 / LA 11.02026-08-24 · field out · FF · popup · EV 31.0 / LA 66.02026-08-26 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 98.9 / LA 12.02026-08-26 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.5 / LA 49.02026-08-29 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 71.6 / LA -23.02026-08-29 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 83.1 / LA 55.02026-08-29 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 105.8 / LA 16.02026-08-29 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 49.02026-08-30 · field out · FF · popup · EV 35.3 / LA 78.02026-08-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.6 / LA 46.02026-08-30 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 90.6 / LA -17.02026-08-31 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 84.4 / LA 26.02026-08-31 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.7 / LA 23.02026-08-31 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.6 / LA 34.02026-09-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 84.1 / LA 42.02026-09-02 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 95.8 / LA -28.02026-09-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.6 / LA 61.02026-09-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 94.4 / LA -1.02026-09-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 85.3 / LA -20.02026-09-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 80.3 / LA 41.02026-09-05 · field out · CU · popup · EV 62.0 / LA 63.02026-09-06 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 81.9 / LA 38.02026-09-06 · home run · FF · line_drive · EV 98.4 / LA 23.02026-09-06 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 78.8 / LA 49.02026-09-06 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 81.6 / LA 1.02026-09-07 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 69.8 / LA -32.02026-09-07 · fielders choice · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.6 / LA -34.02026-09-07 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.6 / LA 11.02026-09-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 76.6 / LA 38.02026-09-08 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 90.9 / LA 2.02026-09-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 79.6 / LA -31.02026-09-11 · field out · FF · popup · EV 64.2 / LA 61.02026-09-11 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 78.8 / LA 37.02026-09-11 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 107.6 / LA 14.02026-09-12 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 75.6 / LA -2.02026-09-12 · field out · CH · popup · EV 91.2 / LA 65.02026-09-12 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 31.4 / LA -3.02026-09-12 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 82.7 / LA 12.02026-09-12 · sac bunt · FC · ground_ball · EV 30.6 / LA -1.02026-09-13 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA 0.02026-09-13 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 95.3 / LA 32.02026-09-17 · field out · SL · popup · EV 69.9 / LA 76.02026-09-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 92.8 / LA -20.02026-09-17 · triple · ST · fly_ball · EV 102.2 / LA 25.02026-09-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 99.7 / LA 5.02026-09-17 · single · CU · fly_ball · EV 65.3 / LA 37.02026-09-18 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 90.4 / LA 11.02026-09-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 75.4 / LA -6.02026-09-18 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 95.7 / LA 1.02026-09-20 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 29.02026-09-20 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 92.2 / LA 18.02026-09-20 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 45.02026-09-22 · field out · CH · popup · EV 81.5 / LA 82.02026-09-22 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 83.6 / LA -18.02026-09-23 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 88.5 / LA 18.02026-09-23 · field out · CU · popup · EV 80.9 / LA 65.02026-09-23 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 88.6 / LA 22.02026-09-25 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 81.1 / LA -14.02026-09-25 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 90.8 / LA 25.02026-09-25 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.1 / LA -10.02026-09-26 · double · FF · fly_ball · EV 103.4 / LA 23.02026-09-26 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.5 / LA 7.02026-09-26 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.1 / LA 2.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Cronenworth, Jake · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 72.1 mph Hard swing rate 23% Whiff / swing 27% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Cronenworth, Jake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 48%48%Chase: 29%29%Whiff: 19%19%Zone contact: 92%92%Contact: 81%81%Hard hit: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.287 vs 0.246 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
3
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.049
wOBA Δ-0.012
Sample440 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances540----
Home Runs13----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3210.295 to 0.366+/- 0.035
ISO0.1450.090 to 0.222+/- 0.066
Barrel%4.3%2.4% to 6.8%+/- 2.2%
Hard-Hit%38.4%32.2% to 45.5%+/- 6.7%
K%20.1%17.0% to 25.2%+/- 4.1%
BB%9.7%7.5% to 13.2%+/- 2.9%
BABIP0.2790.250 to 0.326+/- 0.038
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

1034 career PA

xwOBA0.246
K%18.0%
BB%7.9%
Barrel2.0%
vs RHP

2395 career PA

xwOBA0.287
K%16.2%
BB%9.4%
Barrel4.5%