Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Rodriguez, Bradgley

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.4% K%
Range
12.9% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Balanced reliever Age 23 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
72
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
81
Arsenal5 metrics
84
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.37
ERA current pace2.23
ERA rolling p502.88
Observed weight43%
ERA
0.94 1.86 2.88 3.89 4.81
FIP
1.84 2.60 3.43 4.27 5.02
K%
17.9% 20.3% 22.9% 25.4% 27.8%
BB%
6.4% 7.6% 8.9% 10.3% 11.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
76
ERA2.23
92
BB%9.3%
41
K%23.0%
54
xwOBA allowed0.237
98 +36 vs proj
Barrel allowed2.4%
98 +39 vs proj
Fastball velo97.9
94
Hard-hit allowed31.5%
93
Whiff%28.0%
85 +40 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+110
95
Cutter Stuff+107
96
Fastball Stuff+104
64
Mithrandir Stuff+107
90
Sinker Stuff+105
77
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rodriguez, Bradgley · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.237 2026-07-06: 0.2442026-07-07: 0.2442026-07-08: 0.2442026-07-09: 0.2402026-07-10: 0.2402026-07-11: 0.2352026-07-12: 0.2352026-07-13: 0.2372026-07-14: 0.2372026-07-15: 0.2372026-07-16: 0.2372026-07-17: 0.237 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rodriguez, Bradgley · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 31%31% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rodriguez, Bradgley · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 41.2%Sinker: 26.7%4-Seam Fastball: 23.5%Slider: 7.8%Cutter: 0.8% CH41% · 89 mphprimary pitch CH 41%SI 27%FF 23%SL 8%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rodriguez, Bradgley · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ Changeup: 41% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 89.4 mphCH89 mphSinker: 27% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 97.7 mphSI98 mph4-Seam Fastball: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 98.0 mphFF98 mphSlider: 8% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.2 mphSL88 mphCutter: 1% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 90.6 mphFC91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 42.1% 174 110 limited sample
SI 25.9% 107 105 limited sample
FB 22.0% 91 104 limited sample
FC 9.9% 41 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Sinker 25%, Changeup 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.28
K% Δ+0.006
Sample44.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.6----
Batters Faced132----
K%22.4%12.9% to 29.2%+/- 8.1%
BB%9.7%3.0% to 11.1%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%22.4%9.8% to 27.9%+/- 9.0%
HR/91.090.00 to 1.77+/- 0.89
xwOBA Against0.3110.104 to 0.390+/- 0.143
Barrel% Allowed7.0%0.1% to 8.6%+/- 4.2%
ERA4.510.00 to 5.43+/- 2.71
FIP3.760.76 to 5.22+/- 2.23
WHIP1.3290.438 to 1.617+/- 0.589
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

11 career BF

xwOBA0.117
K%14.4%
BB%5.4%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

20 career BF

xwOBA0.116
K%14.8%
BB%4.2%
Barrel0.1%