Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / SD · 2026
Tatis Jr., Fernando
On-base driven regular with stable floor
Team SD
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
95
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.370 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.380 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.378 |
| Observed weight | 76% |
xwOBA
0.357
0.367
0.378
0.388
0.398
wOBA
0.357
0.368
0.380
0.393
0.404
ISO
0.165
0.174
0.185
0.195
0.205
K%
17.4%
18.3%
19.2%
20.2%
21.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.0%
95
Exit velocity92.3
95
Hard-hit%53.9%
97
xBA0.376
95
xSLG0.635
87
xwOBA0.380
99
BB%9.3%
60
Bat speed73.5
92
K%18.9%
73
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.4 · RF
82
Arm Strength100.8 · RF
95
Outs Above Avg2.0 · RF
88
Range Runs2.9 · RF
76
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · RF
55
Bolts33.0 · RF
85
SB Success Rate67.6% · RF
21
Sprint Speed28.9 · RF
88
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.7% · rebadged research
72
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.9% · rebadged research
83
Correct Decisions69.9% · rebadged research
85
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.340 · borderline
3
Resists FastballwOBA 0.345 · validated
36
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361 · validated
39
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
86
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
59
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.313 · validated thin sample
5
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · insufficient sample
57
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.013 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.014 |
| Sample | 709 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 608 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 24 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.367 | 0.337 to 0.417 | +/- 0.040 |
| ISO | 0.193 | 0.141 to 0.257 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 8.1% | 5.5% to 9.9% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 51.7% | 45.0% to 57.8% | +/- 6.4% |
| K% | 20.0% | 15.7% to 24.8% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 10.3% | 8.4% to 13.3% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.306 | 0.265 to 0.348 | +/- 0.041 |
vs LHP
780 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.321 |
| K% | 16.8% |
| BB% | 12.2% |
| Barrel | 6.5% |
vs RHP
2315 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.329 |
| K% | 17.0% |
| BB% | 8.1% |
| Barrel | 7.2% |