Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / SD · 2026
Harris, Dustin
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team SD
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
26
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.284 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.312 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.295 |
| Observed weight | 40% |
xwOBA
0.261
0.277
0.295
0.313
0.329
wOBA
0.294
0.318
0.345
0.371
0.395
ISO
0.084
0.108
0.135
0.161
0.185
K%
12.6%
15.5%
18.7%
21.9%
24.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.4%
6
-34 vs proj
Exit velocity82.7
7
Hard-hit%19.1%
1
-31 vs proj
xBA0.325
58
xSLG0.423
22
xwOBA0.312
60
+25 vs proj
BB%7.6%
39
Bat speed63.9
4
K%13.8%
93
+40 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · LF
78
Arm Strength85.0 · LF
2
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
50
Range Runs0.4 · LF
51
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate88.9% · LF
77
Sprint Speed28.9 · LF
88
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.3% · rebadged research
44
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.6% · rebadged research
77
Correct Decisions65.8% · rebadged research
46
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · borderline
59
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
59
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.307 · validated thin sample
8
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · insufficient sample
28
Resists FastballwOBA 0.318 · validated
85
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.364 · validated
33
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
57
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
92 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.021 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.053 |
| Sample | 145 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 230 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.292 | 0.194 to 0.287 | +/- 0.046 |
| ISO | 0.152 | 0.059 to 0.222 | +/- 0.081 |
| Barrel% | 4.2% | 0.4% to 5.3% | +/- 2.5% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.5% | 21.7% to 41.6% | +/- 10.0% |
| K% | 22.2% | 13.0% to 32.5% | +/- 9.8% |
| BB% | 6.9% | 2.1% to 10.2% | +/- 4.0% |
| BABIP | 0.277 | 0.194 to 0.327 | +/- 0.066 |
vs LHP
10 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.053 |
| K% | 6.7% |
| BB% | 1.4% |
| Barrel | 0.5% |
vs RHP
70 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.059 |
| K% | 6.2% |
| BB% | 1.7% |
| Barrel | 0.7% |