Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 52%, Slider 46%, Changeup 2%.
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026
Miller, Mason
High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss
Team SD
Archetype Balanced reliever 2
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
91
Pitching
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 2.88 |
| ERA current pace | 0.91 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 2.11 |
| Observed weight | 39% |
ERA
0.83
1.43
2.11
2.78
3.39
FIP
0.75
1.20
1.71
2.22
2.67
K%
36.9%
39.4%
42.3%
45.1%
47.6%
BB%
6.7%
8.1%
9.7%
11.2%
12.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.81
99
ERA0.91
100
BB%8.4%
54
+30 vs proj
K%46.8%
100
xwOBA allowed0.181
100
Barrel allowed4.5%
89
+43 vs proj
Fastball velo101.3
100
Hard-hit allowed25.4%
99
Whiff%44.1%
100
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Slider Stuff+105
71
Changeup Stuff+89
3
Fastball Stuff+107
82
Mithrandir Stuff+106
82
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
53%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 54.9% | 242 | 105 | qualified |
| FB | 42.2% | 186 | 107 | limited sample |
| CH | 2.7% | 12 | 89 | limited sample |
| SI | 0.2% | 1 | 122 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -2.30 |
| K% Δ | +0.087 |
| Sample | 40.7 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 39.7 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 156 | -- | -- |
| K% | 38.1% | 32.3% to 48.7% | +/- 8.2% |
| BB% | 11.1% | 6.0% to 14.9% | +/- 4.5% |
| Whiff% | 37.9% | 32.4% to 44.3% | +/- 6.0% |
| HR/9 | 1.00 | 0.48 to 1.81 | +/- 0.66 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.253 | 0.165 to 0.329 | +/- 0.082 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.9% | 3.7% to 12.8% | +/- 4.6% |
| ERA | 3.21 | 1.15 to 5.35 | +/- 2.10 |
| FIP | 2.43 | 1.40 to 4.55 | +/- 1.58 |
| WHIP | 1.024 | 0.676 to 1.437 | +/- 0.380 |
vs LHH
298 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.239 |
| K% | 38.1% |
| BB% | 12.2% |
| Barrel | 9.2% |
vs RHH
372 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.221 |
| K% | 39.0% |
| BB% | 8.2% |
| Barrel | 7.3% |