Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Miller, Mason

High-leverage relief profile with bat-miss

Primary
38.1% K%
Range
32.3% to 48.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
89
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
87
Arsenal4 metrics
62
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason2.88
ERA current pace1.12
ERA rolling p501.95
Observed weight53%
ERA
0.46 1.16 1.95 2.73 3.43
FIP
0.63 1.16 1.75 2.34 2.87
K%
39.1% 41.1% 43.4% 45.7% 47.8%
BB%
7.2% 8.4% 9.6% 10.9% 12.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.86
98
ERA1.12
99
BB%8.9%
50 +25 vs proj
K%47.0%
100
xwOBA allowed0.194
100
Barrel allowed7.8%
44
Fastball velo101.5
100
Hard-hit allowed30.4%
95
Whiff%42.4%
100
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+107
84
Mithrandir Stuff+106
87
Slider Stuff+105
76
Changeup Stuff+87
3
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Miller, Mason · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.194 2026-09-12: 0.1902026-09-13: 0.1892026-09-14: 0.1892026-09-18: 0.1882026-09-19: 0.1882026-09-20: 0.1882026-09-21: 0.1902026-09-22: 0.1902026-09-23: 0.1902026-09-24: 0.1932026-09-25: 0.1932026-09-26: 0.194 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Miller, Mason · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 42%42%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Miller, Mason · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 49.6%4-Seam Fastball: 48.3%Changeup: 2.0%Sinker: 0.1% SL50% · 88 mphprimary pitch SL 50%FF 48%CH 2%SI 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Miller, Mason · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 50% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 88.0 mphSL88 mph4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 10″ drop, 101.5 mphFF101 mphChangeup: 2% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 96.5 mphCH96 mphSinker: 0% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 9″ drop, 100.9 mphSI101 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 51.1% 341 105 qualified
FB 46.6% 311 107 qualified
CH 2.1% 14 87 limited sample
SI 0.1% 1 124 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 52%, Slider 46%, Changeup 2%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.09
K% Δ+0.090
Sample70.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings39.3----
Batters Faced155----
K%38.1%32.3% to 48.7%+/- 8.2%
BB%11.1%6.0% to 14.9%+/- 4.5%
Whiff%37.9%32.4% to 44.3%+/- 6.0%
HR/91.000.48 to 1.81+/- 0.66
xwOBA Against0.2540.165 to 0.329+/- 0.082
Barrel% Allowed7.9%3.7% to 12.8%+/- 4.6%
ERA3.211.15 to 5.35+/- 2.10
FIP2.431.40 to 4.55+/- 1.58
WHIP1.0240.675 to 1.437+/- 0.381
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

298 career BF

xwOBA0.239
K%38.1%
BB%12.2%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

372 career BF

xwOBA0.221
K%39.0%
BB%8.2%
Barrel7.3%