Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / SD · 2026
Wagner, Will
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team SD
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.314 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.441 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.320 |
| Observed weight | 5% |
xwOBA
0.278
0.298
0.320
0.343
0.363
wOBA
0.379
0.466
0.562
0.659
0.746
ISO
0.056
0.091
0.131
0.171
0.206
K%
11.4%
14.0%
16.8%
19.7%
22.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Insufficient sample
Percentile strips appear after the current-season sample clears the threshold.
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
116 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026, 2025). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 293 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.307 | 0.263 to 0.351 | +/- 0.044 |
| ISO | 0.128 | 0.026 to 0.184 | +/- 0.079 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 1.2% to 6.0% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.8% | 28.0% to 44.8% | +/- 8.4% |
| K% | 17.5% | 13.5% to 25.0% | +/- 5.7% |
| BB% | 8.8% | 4.8% to 12.1% | +/- 3.6% |
| BABIP | 0.287 | 0.235 to 0.344 | +/- 0.055 |
vs LHP
49 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.149 |
| K% | 10.0% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |
vs RHP
221 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.176 |
| K% | 8.3% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 1.6% |