Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / SD · 2026
Wagner, Will
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team SD
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 28
Status Out / inactive
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
61
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.314 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.329 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.316 |
| Observed weight | 17% |
xwOBA
0.277
0.296
0.316
0.337
0.356
wOBA
0.281
0.325
0.373
0.422
0.466
ISO
0.048
0.079
0.114
0.149
0.180
K%
11.6%
13.9%
16.5%
19.1%
21.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-0.3 · 2B
34
Regression applied
Range Runs-2.2 · 2B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.1 · DH
19
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 84.2% · rebadged research
100
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.0% · rebadged research
89
Correct Decisions76.7% · rebadged research
99
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · borderline
49
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279 · validated thin sample
51
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · insufficient sample
31
Resists FastballwOBA 0.342 · validated
40
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline124
99
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
122 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026, 2025). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 293 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.307 | 0.263 to 0.351 | +/- 0.044 |
| ISO | 0.128 | 0.026 to 0.184 | +/- 0.079 |
| Barrel% | 3.5% | 1.2% to 6.0% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.8% | 28.0% to 44.8% | +/- 8.4% |
| K% | 17.5% | 13.4% to 25.0% | +/- 5.8% |
| BB% | 8.8% | 4.8% to 12.1% | +/- 3.6% |
| BABIP | 0.287 | 0.235 to 0.344 | +/- 0.055 |
vs LHP
49 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.149 |
| K% | 10.0% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 1.4% |
vs RHP
221 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.176 |
| K% | 8.3% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 1.6% |