Mithrandir Metrics
PHI National League East Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Club dossier / National League / National League East

Philadelphia Phillies

87.7-74.3 with P10-P90 wins 78-98. 80.7 avg opponent projected wins.

Projected W
87.7-74.3
Live pace
87.5
Delta
-0.2
Record 87-74 Run diff 11 Generated 2026-09-27T11:48:30.615249+00:00
Rolling projection

Preseason / pace / Bayesian update

Preseason88.0
Current pace87.5
Rolling p5087.7
Observed weight73%
Rolling wins
78.5 82.8 87.7 92.5 96.8
MOVE -0.3 wins PACE behind BULLPEN FIP 4.39
October path

Projection odds

Division23.0%
Playoffs66.8%
Pennant11.1%
World Series5.6%
Run environment

Team talent

wOBA0.274
Rotation FIP4.05
Bullpen FIP4.39
Run diff63.4
Current roster

Lineup projection

Active-roster status 2026-09-27; positions prioritize the latest confirmed lineup from 2026-09-26.

SlotPlayerPAValue
CRealmuto, J.t.5362.22
1BHarper, Bryce5747.65
2BStott, Bryson5620.12
SSTurner, Trea6011.56
3BBohm, Alec5342.83
LFMarsh, Brandon4832.56
CFCrawford, Justin201-0.42
RFCruz, Bryan De La300-0.07
DHSchwarber, Kyle65813.07
Roster context

Not on the active roster

These players remain connected to the club but are excluded from the lineup and pitching staff.

PlayerGroupStatusLatest detail
García, AdolisHitterIL-60Injured 60-Day
Rojas, JohanHitterIL-60Injured 60-Day
Reyes, FelixHitterIL-60Injured 60-Day
Keller, BradPitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day
Kilian, CalebPitcherIL-60Injured 60-Day
Misner, KameronHitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Kemp, OttoHitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Thomas, ColbyHitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Rincones Jr., GabrielHitterOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Cortes, NestorPitcherOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Holman, GrantPitcherOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Kerkering, OrionPitcherOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Backhus, KylePitcherOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Rangel, AlanPitcherOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors
Hoffmann, AndrewPitcherOut / inactiveReassigned to Minors