Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Nola, Aaron

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.5% K%
Range
18.4% to 27.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Volatile contact Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
51
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
44
Arsenal6 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.42
ERA current pace4.49
ERA rolling p504.47
Observed weight76%
ERA
3.23 3.82 4.47 5.13 5.72
FIP
3.95 4.34 4.77 5.20 5.58
K%
21.4% 22.3% 23.3% 24.3% 25.2%
BB%
6.6% 7.1% 7.7% 8.3% 8.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
42
ERA4.49
39
BB%8.2%
60 -22 vs proj
K%23.8%
64 +27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.312
50 +17 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.2%
23
Fastball velo92.0
15
Hard-hit allowed40.2%
37
Whiff%25.2%
69 +32 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+104
68
Curveball Stuff+103
63
Fastball Stuff+103
56
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Sinker Stuff+103
56
Cutter Stuff+96
12
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Nola, Aaron · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.312 2026-09-12: 0.3112026-09-13: 0.3112026-09-14: 0.3112026-09-18: 0.3122026-09-19: 0.3122026-09-20: 0.3122026-09-21: 0.3122026-09-22: 0.3122026-09-23: 0.3122026-09-24: 0.3122026-09-25: 0.3122026-09-26: 0.312 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Nola, Aaron · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nola, Aaron · 2026 arsenal snapshot Knuckle Curve: 33.1%4-Seam Fastball: 24.0%Sinker: 18.1%Changeup: 16.4%Cutter: 7.8%Slider: 0.7% KC33% · 78 mphprimary pitch KC 33%FF 24%SI 18%CH 16%FC 8%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nola, Aaron · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Knuckle Curve: 33% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 78.4 mphKC78 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.3 mphFF92 mphSinker: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.6 mphSI92 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.6 mphCH86 mphCutter: 8% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 86.2 mphFC86 mphSlider: 1% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 83.2 mphSL83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CB 33.7% 678 103 qualified
FB 24.8% 500 103 qualified
SI 18.1% 364 103 qualified
CH 15.0% 302 104 qualified
FC 8.0% 161 96 limited sample
SL 0.4% 8 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.309 vs 0.280 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 30%, Knuckle Curve 29%, Sinker 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.24
K% Δ+0.034
Sample175.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings142.8----
Batters Faced603----
K%20.5%18.4% to 27.7%+/- 4.7%
BB%6.7%4.8% to 8.6%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%21.2%18.7% to 26.7%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.511.05 to 2.26+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3250.274 to 0.332+/- 0.029
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.3% to 11.9%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.253.06 to 6.19+/- 1.57
FIP4.403.04 to 5.09+/- 1.02
WHIP1.2371.046 to 1.543+/- 0.248
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3591 career BF

xwOBA0.309
K%21.1%
BB%7.0%
Barrel9.7%
vs RHH

3891 career BF

xwOBA0.280
K%23.8%
BB%5.2%
Barrel7.9%