Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Backhus, Kyle

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.3% K%
Range
14.4% to 26.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Balanced reliever Age 28 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
45
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
46
Arsenal4 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.11
ERA current pace4.95
ERA rolling p504.36
Observed weight30%
ERA
2.86 3.57 4.36 5.15 5.86
FIP
3.26 3.69 4.17 4.64 5.07
K%
14.9% 17.1% 19.4% 21.8% 24.0%
BB%
4.6% 5.8% 7.1% 8.5% 9.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.55
18
ERA4.95
28
BB%5.8%
91 +29 vs proj
K%19.4%
32
xwOBA allowed0.308
57 +24 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.1%
93 +35 vs proj
Fastball velo90.7
6
Hard-hit allowed33.8%
83
Whiff%17.3%
9
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+95
13
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
Sinker Stuff+108
87
Slider Stuff+99
30
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 57%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Backhus, Kyle · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.308 2026-09-12: 0.3082026-09-13: 0.3082026-09-14: 0.3082026-09-18: 0.3082026-09-19: 0.3082026-09-20: 0.3082026-09-21: 0.3082026-09-22: 0.3082026-09-23: 0.3082026-09-24: 0.3082026-09-25: 0.3082026-09-26: 0.308 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Backhus, Kyle · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 22%22%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Backhus, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 57.4%Sweeper: 32.8%Changeup: 9.8% SI57% · 91 mphprimary pitch SI 57%ST 33%CH 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Backhus, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 57% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 90.7 mphSI91 mphSweeper: 33% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 78.3 mphST78 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 80.3 mphCH80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 58.8% 143 108 limited sample
SL 33.3% 81 99 limited sample
CH 7.8% 19 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.238 vs 0.274 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 63%, Sweeper 28%, Changeup 9%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.87
K% Δ+0.002
Sample22.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.2----
Batters Faced148----
K%19.3%14.4% to 26.6%+/- 6.1%
BB%8.0%4.5% to 11.4%+/- 3.4%
Whiff%19.6%14.8% to 25.4%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.360.61 to 2.05+/- 0.72
xwOBA Against0.3270.296 to 0.397+/- 0.051
Barrel% Allowed6.9%3.3% to 10.6%+/- 3.6%
ERA4.083.20 to 7.15+/- 1.97
FIP4.013.37 to 5.75+/- 1.19
WHIP1.2791.065 to 1.687+/- 0.311
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

47 career BF

xwOBA0.238
K%16.0%
BB%5.6%
Barrel4.2%
vs RHH

79 career BF

xwOBA0.274
K%14.1%
BB%5.7%
Barrel5.2%